April 2, 2020

expert reaction to latest case and death figures for COVID-19 in the UK

The Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) has released the latest case and death figures for COVID-19 in the UK – 33,718 cases (4,244 new cases) and 2,921 deaths (569 new deaths).

Prof Jim Naismith FRS FMedSci, Rosalind Franklin Institute and Oxford University, said:

“We must remember that today’s report of 569 deaths will have left many more people grief stricken. That the number has not leapt up again today as it did yesterday is clearly a relief but it should not be construed as positive sign on our progress in halting the virus. Scientists have repeatedly pointed out that day to day figures on deaths are not a useful guide to our efforts against the disease for two main reasons. Firstly, deaths lag behind infections in time (up to a month), so we will not see the effect of the strict government lock down for a further two weeks or so. Secondly, some of the deaths being reported today occurred two weeks ago and different NHS trusts are reporting different time periods. This is understandable, NHS Trusts are focussed on saving lives not tidying up figures for press releases. Government is releasing the raw figures for transparency and scientists can convert these data releases into the actual number of deaths per day to inform vital epidemiology studies. The only downside of Government releasing data in this way, is that it has become a scorecard for the media and a worried public. We are all worried but I am certain that social distancing remains the most important thing we can do. I am equally certain that we must all try not to ride the emotional roller coaster of daily totals of new tragedies, alternating between feelings of salvation or doom. We have world class epidemiologists who are ordering the data and analysing it properly. Only this detailed work is a reliable guide, anything else is simply unhelpful guess work.”

Prof Keith Neal, Emeritus Professor of the Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases, University of Nottingham, said:

“These figures are much in line with expectations.  There is continuing evidence that the social distancing measures put in place on the 16^th and then 23^rd of March could be having an effect in slowing the rate of increase of new infections.  The current social distancing needs to be maintained and it is also a reminder that not only the old and those with underlying conditions can get severe disease.”

* https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public

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