select search filters
briefings
roundups & rapid reactions
Fiona fox's blog
Scientists comment on a drought being declared in North-West England.
Prof David Simon, Professor of Development Geography, Royal Holloway, University of London, said:
“The declaration of a drought in NW England on 21st May follows what has been described there as the third dryest spring (February to April) since records began in 1871. Countrywide, it has also been an unusually dry spring, although it followed a long and very wet and mild period over the preceding 12-18 months.
“It is unusual for the Environment Agency to declare droughts so early in the year but, the quickening pace of climate change means that such conditions will become more frequent and dry periods sometimes more severe. Fluctuations between dry and wet will also become more extreme. The precise impacts of climate change will vary somewhat by region across the UK, but IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) projections point to the Southeast having an increasingly Mediterranean-type climate by mid-century. This will probably mean a modest decline in average precipitation and greater seasonality, with summers becoming drier. Indeed, temperatures are already increasing, and severe summer heatwaves will become more frequent.
“Already we are also witnessing changes to wildlife ranges, with temperate species moving north and new arrivals from the Mediterranean or beyond visiting or becoming established.
“Agriculture is also feeling the effects, with crop growth and maturation being affected and irrigation – where feasible – increasing. Techniques to mitigate the changes are fairly limited, so already greater attention is being paid to adaptive measures to promote water retention in soils and change crops to more resilient varieties and species. Just as the expansion of viticulture in southern England has been enabled by warmer summers and milder winters, one positive consequence might well be that the UK will be able to grow a wider range of food crops, thereby improving self-reliance.
“Societally, we will need to respond with a multifaceted approach that reduces per capita water consumption, conserves and reuses far more water (such as grey water use in gardens and for allotment cultivation), and augments supply. After all, the population has increased by some 9 million since the most recent reservoirs came on stream, and just today it was announced that the government was taking control of the planning process to enable fast-tracking of two large new reservoirs in Lincolnshire and Cambridgeshire to address growing demand. The rollout of domestic water metering should also be accelerated as a key demand management tool. For too long, people in the UK have been able to regard potable water as a ‘free’ resource because water rates bear no relation to actual consumption, being based on the size and value of homes.”
What are the potential health impacts of people living in drought/drought-risk areas?
“Dehydration, heat exhaustion and possible heat stroke; in extreme cases, these can be fatal; an increase in vector-borne illnesses is likely, e.g. malaria and possibly dengue fever if infected mosquitoes become established the SE England again, as is likely. . Appropriate steps vs sun/heat: keep well hydrated; wear hats and sunblock when outdoors; avoid direct exposure to the sun for lengthy periods during the hottest parts of the day. Against mosquito bites: wear long sleeves after sunset; use anti-mossie spray or roll-ons.”
Dr Jonathan Paul, Senior Lecturer in Earth Science, Royal Holloway, University of London, said:
“An official declaration of “drought” would oblige all interested parties (i.e. local and national political leaders, water companies, and the regulator – the Environment Agency) to enact certain emergency protocols to maintain sufficient drinking water quality and quantity – for instance, pumping stored groundwater or diverting water from elsewhere (often mountainous and wetter areas like Snowdonia or the Peaks). If conditions become more severe (such as happened in summer 1976), the onus might fall on water users; for instance, hosepipe bans.
“Low water levels in reservoirs and rivers have a negative impact on water quality: increasing temperatures, lower dissolved oxygen levels, and more concentrated solutes like nitrates and phosphates can enhance processes like eutrophication (algal blooms), which damage entire ecosystems.
“Droughts are likely to be much more widespread in the medium term (the next 10-20 years) because of a yawning supply-demand deficit. Population increases are concentrated in areas of low rainfall – the Southeast, which, since February has been on average drier than Houston or Istanbul (based on comparing precipitation data from these locations [1-3]) . But also changes in our climate will mean longer dry stretches punctuated by short, intense cloudbursts, which our existing storage systems are not prepared for. In other words rainfall will not be retained for later, while flooding will happen increasingly commonly when capacity is overwhelmed.
“The government’s decision to build today the first new reservoirs in in the UK in over 30 years is a welcome step forward. But there are also many other buffering steps that can be taken to improve our drought resilience; for instance reducing evaporation from existing reservoirs, or pumping water underground into aquifers during the wetter winter months, to be extracted again during times of drought (aquifer storage and recovery – ASR). ASR is very common in highly water stressed areas like California and across the Levant – regions whose climate the UK is headed towards.”
References
Dr Jonathan Mackay, Senior Hydrogeologist, British Geological Survey, said:
“Despite the recent dry weather, groundwater levels in the main aquifer in the north-west Permo-Triassic sandstone remain at above normal levels for this time of year. Our latest forecasts suggest they are likely to stay this way over the summer. While groundwater levels in some aquifers in the north of England are currently lower than average, the anticipated impacts are expected to be highly localised. This is due to the large volume of water stored in these aquifers, and their resilience to prolonged dry conditions.”
Prof Hayley Fowler, Professor of Climate Change Impacts, Newcastle University, said:
“The dry and drought conditions that we are currently experiencing across the UK are consistent with what we expect from climate models, especially in summer months. With global warming we expect more prolonged and intense droughts and heatwaves punctuated by more intense rainfall, possibly causing flash floods. In recent years, we have experienced more of these atmospheric blocks, causing record heat and persistent drought, as well as severe flooding in other locations in Europe. Recent months have been no different, with prolonged dry conditions and heatwaves in northern Europe and floods in southern Europe.”
Dr Jess Neumann, Associate Professor of Hydrology, University of Reading, said:
“The north-west of England has seen an exceptionally dry spring – the driest in nearly 100 years. This lack of rainfall has led to low water levels in reservoirs and rivers. The north-west of the country is reliant on reservoirs to source around two-thirds of its water supply.
“Droughts are caused by a lack of rainfall and although they are often associated with hot weather during summer months, droughts can occur at any time of year and persist for months, or even years. The 2025 drought is serious – reservoir levels are well-below what they should be at this time of year. This raises important questions about how water will be managed this summer, but also going forward long-term. Water is becoming a scarce resource and the UK supply is under significant stress.
“Water companies are already implementing Drought Action Plans, but as individuals, we need to be mindful of our water use. Freshwater is not an infinite resource and unless the UK takes action in the near future, one day some regions could find taps running dry. Be mindful of how much water you use – switch to a watering can for your garden now; capture and re-use rainwater with water butts, buckets and tubs; take short showers; turn the tap off whilst brushing teeth; capture cold water in a pan whilst waiting for the hot water to flow and use it to water your plants. Small actions by lots of people make the difference.
“A drought that takes hold of the environment spells bad news. Droughts can create shortages of food as crops fail, can lead to higher food prices rise, and there can be public health implications and knock-on impacts to the economy, and for wildlife.”
Dr Barnaby Dobson, Research Fellow, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, said:
“An official drought in this region (and most regions in the UK) is declared when the water level in reservoirs drops below a specified level (that level varies throughout the year). When this happens water companies must declare a drought for various reasons including to implement alternative measures (such as using emergency reservoirs, abstracting more water from rivers, or calling a hosepipe ban). As the water level drops further, they may do more actions.
“The typical cause of drought is of course not enough rain, particularly over extended periods of time, and which is the case for this drought – i.e., not enough supply. Though, I believe there was an unusual case a year or two ago when South East Water called a hosepipe ban due to unexpectedly high garden water use – i.e., too much demand, my research suggests that garden water use is an area of demand that is poorly understood by water companies and is likely to worsen in the future.
“Although these months have been exceptionally dry, this is not of extreme concern yet. From a water supply perspective, a dry month looks much like an exceptionally dry month (i.e., you can’t get much water supply during either) – the concern is really around consecutive dry months (extreme or otherwise).
“Yes, climate change is expected to worsen the frequency, locations susceptible to, and severity of droughts (as with anything climate change though, a forecast is somewhat meaningless due to the enormous variability). However, because droughts are very difficult to characterise statistically, they are harder to attribute explicitly to climate change (unlike for example floods).
“Mitigation is a huge and varied topic that involves either increasing supply or decreasing demand. Water companies have to explore all of their options for both of these factors in exhausting reports called Water Resource Management Plans. They then must justify that they are making the most cost-efficient-robust choices to OFWAT.”
Lucy Barker, Hydrologist, UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH), said:
“Most parts of the UK are experiencing the effects of the driest spring for several decades, but the situation is particularly acute in northern Britain, where there was also below-average rainfall in the winter months – a particularly vital time for filling reservoirs.
“This has resulted in exceptionally low river flows and reservoir levels. River flows in the north-west of England have been falling since mid-February. On the Lune, Derwent and Ribble, flows have been tracking or have been lower than notable drought years of 1976, 1984 and 2011, as well as more recent drought years of 2018 and 2022.
“Data to 25 May show levels at major reservoirs supplying the north-west of England have dropped since the end of April, including Haweswater and Thirlmere where the combined level is now at 47.5% of capacity.
“We can see that the rain over the last week has boosted river flows and soil moisture in the region in the short-term. However, this recent wet spell will not have made up for the long-term dry period. If the dry weather returns, river flows would drop steeply again in this part of the country where they respond very quickly to changes in rainfall. In addition, as temperatures climb as we head into the summer, higher evaporation means less of the rain that falls will make its way into rivers and reservoirs.
“The latest rainfall, river flows (for England and Scotland) and soil moisture can be viewed on the UK Water Resources Portal [1]”
“The UK Hydrological Outlook [2] for June-August is due to be published on 11 June. The UK Hydrological Summary [3] for May is due to be published on 13 June.”
References:
Prof Richard Allan, Professor of Climate Science, University of Reading, said:
“The lack of rainfall across the UK in spring 2025 constituted a meteorological drought and this quickly depleted the soil’s moisture leading to concerns over agricultural drought. Lowering river and reservoir levels are a concern for the northwest of the UK as further dry spells could threaten the supply of water as part of a hydrological drought. Of less concern are regions of copious ground water like the chalky catchments in the southeast of England which enter but also leave drought conditions more slowly than other regions of the UK.
“Droughts are expected to onset more rapidly and become more intense as the planet warms since the atmosphere’s thirst for water grows. A warming climate means moisture is more readily sapped from one region and blown into storm systems elsewhere, intensifying both wet and dry weather extremes with wilder swings between them. The only way to limit the increasing severity of wet and dry extremes is to rapidly cut greenhouse gas emissions across all sectors of society.”
Mr Alastair Chisholm, Director of Policy & External Affairs, CIWEM (Chartered Institution of Water and Environmental Management), said:
“The drought in the north-west is not surprising given the dry weather seen across the spring. Drought can come on particularly quickly in areas which rely on water supplies fed by surface water storage reservoirs as are common in this area, rather than large rivers or groundwater sources. Prolonged dry weather is more unusual in such parts of the country, but when it does happen the effects are more pronounced. Conversely, with some rain, given more mountainous topography and higher average annual rainfall in these areas, reservoirs can quickly recover.
“Official declarations of drought signal that water companies and the Environment Agency will progress to more advanced stages in their drought plans, such as temporary use bans (colloquially known as hosepipe bans).”
References:
https://www.ciwem.org/policy-reports/drought-management
https://www.ciwem.org/news/managing-drought-ciwems-position
Declared interests
Prof Jonathan Paul None
Dr Jonathan Mackay None
Mr Alastair Chisholm “None”
Prof Richard Allan “None”
Lucy Barker: None
Dr Barnaby Dobson: “We collaborate with water companies for research projects, particularly in getting data to set up case studies. I have been paid for consulting work in the water sector, though by EA/local authorities and not water companies.”
Prof Hayley Fowler: “None”
Prof David Simon: “A Lead Author on the current IPCC 7th Assessment Cycle’s Special Report on Climate Change and Cities. A member of the Core Group of the Surrey Climate Commission. Greener Futures lead for RHUL in the Civic University Agreement for Surrey. The only Industry funding he’s had is match funding in 2024 from the Heathrow Strategic Planning Group with that from RHUL’s Social Science Impact Accelerator for a project on the governance of the increasing demand for solar farms on rural and peri-urban land in Surrey and vicinity.”
For all other experts, no reply to our request for DOIs was received.