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A government report into the likely effects of climate change on the UK, identifying flooding as a major risk but highlighting some potential benefits.
Professor Sam Fankhauser, Co-Director of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at London School of Economics and Political Science, said:
“This important report shows that national and local government and businesses should not ignore the risks of global warming when making crucial decisions now about, for instance, how to protect houses, offices, factories, schools, hospitals and roads against extreme weather events. Last year was the second warmest on record in the UK and 7 of the 10 warmest years have occurred since 2002, so it is clear that climate change is already having an impact on this country, and we need to adapt to rising sea levels, increases in summer heatwaves and more extreme rainfall events. It is clear that the climate will continue to change, and that the risks will carry on growing unless the world significantly reduces emissions of greenhouse gases.
“This risk assessment is an important first step towards the UK becoming more resilient to future climate change. The risk assessment should be improved in the future by taking account of low-probability but potentially catastrophic impacts, such as a rapid rise in global sea level due to major destabilisation of the land-based polar ice sheets, and of the indirect consequences for the UK of climate change impacts in other parts of the world, such as the destruction of crops by drought.”
Professor Nigel Arnell, Director of the Walker Institute at the University of Reading, said:
“The Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) represents a vital step in highlighting and managing the risks and opportunities from climate change in the UK. The assessment looks at possible impacts of climate change across a range of sectors, through the 21st century. The assessment identifies coastal and river flooding, heat waves and pressure on water resources as some of the most pressing risks for the UK.
“The language of risk is essential when addressing climate change, because, while we can expect the UK to get warmer, we don’t know all the details of how temperature and rainfall will change at a particular place. The language of risk resonates with business and provides a way to build climate change adaptation in to plans for the future.
“While the assessment provides a national overview, risks will depend on the particular business you are in. Many of these risks will be complex, and many may arise from climate changes in other parts of the world. It is important for organisations to assess their own individual risks and how they may adapt to them, and this needs close cooperation between the scientific community, public sector and business. The CCRA provides an excellent starting point for this cooperation.”
Professor Rowan Sutton, Climate Director in the National Centre for Atmospheric Science at the University of Reading, said:
“Assessing the risks that climate change poses to the UK is a vital and urgent task, and one which involves numerous scientific challenges. The first UK Climate Change Risk Assessment is an important landmark. As well as raising awareness about the risks we face, it highlights the need for further research to refine our knowledge in order to provide more detailed advice – which policy and decision makers need to design cost-effective adaptation strategies.”
Prof Julian Hunt, Emeritus Professor of Climate Modelling at University College London, said:
“I am pleased that the UK climate scientists now emphasise the results, also found in France and USA, that there will be longer periods of static weather conditions that could extend over much of Europe. This leads to dangerous urban heat island temperatures and droughts. But it also indicates the danger of lengthy very low wind conditions, or cloudy conditions, so that low carbon energy alternatives to wind and solar are essential, which should include coastal nuclear power stations.”
Dr Peter Mallaburn, Reader in Climate Policy at De Montfort University, said:
“This is a remarkable piece of work from Defra. It nails the lie, being cast around by the climate sceptics (including some who are rather too close to parts of the government), that climate change isn’t happening, and even if it is, it won’t affect us, and even if it will, it will all be beneficial.
“It’s remarkable for a number of reasons, but mainly because it shows just how unprepared we are for a warmer world. Take buildings, an absolutely central part of our daily lives, and responsible for around half of our CO2 emissions. The UK has some of the worst performing buildings in the western world in terms of energy efficiency. This report says, for the first time, that not only are our homes and offices leaky, but that they will start to overheat in a warmer world.
“Despite this we still do not have a coherent set of policies to improve the energy performance of our buildings. Emissions have flatlined for 30 years. Can you imagine the outcry if this sorry state of affairs applied to some other part of our national infrastructure? Like roads, hospitals or the National Grid?
“The Carbon Trust has said that a 75% reduction in emissions from non-domestic buildings is possible by 2050 at no net cost. So we can fix this. But government has to act decisively because the market simply isn’t going to do this on its own. The signs aren’t encouraging: the government bottled out of making energy performance labels compulsory on commercial buildings, a critical first step.
“We need a coherent strategy to sort out this mess. Let’s hope that this report acts as a wake-up call.”
Prof Nick Pidgeon, Director of the Understanding Risk Research Group at Cardiff University and ESRC Climate Change Professorial Fellow, said:
“The UKCCRA is an important first step in evaluating the growing risks that climate change is posing to the UK. Society now needs to move beyond the sterile debates over whether climate change is happening or not, to consider properly how to plan to counter these risks. This Assessment also provides an evidence base which will support the arguments linking extreme weather events in the UK, such as flooding, to climate change.
“As our research published in Nature Climate Change earlier this year shows, this can also help to prompt all of us to pay greater attention to how climate change affects our everyday lives and to the actions which will need to be taken to prevent it.”
Dr Chris Huntingford of the UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, said:
“Climate research centres are trying to predict many details associated with future higher concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases. Yet there is often a feeling of being in the dark as regards the precise complexion and features of an altered climate that will impact society the most. This particularly well thought out study for the UK bridges that gap. It presents a comprehensive list of climate-related issues from food and water security, through to flood risk, implications for the insurance sector, general societal well-being, health, transport reliability and other financial impacts.
“This report presents a direct challenge to the climate modelling community to provide more bespoke assessments of climate impacts, tailored tightly to the multiple issues, both positive and negative, and as identified by its authors.”