August 11, 2026

expert reaction to current drought and fifth heatwave

Scientists comment on the current drought situation and fifth heatwave in the UK. 

Prof Hannah Cloke, Professor of Hydrology, University of Reading, said:

“The impacts of the current drought on water resources are becoming increasingly significant across most parts of England. After a long period of below-average rainfall, river flows, reservoir levels and soil moisture have all been declining, placing pressure on both public water supplies and the natural environment.

“While water companies and regulators have a range of measures available to manage demand, like restrictions and hosepipe bans, these are aimed at slowing the rate at which water resources are depleted. It will not end the drought itself. 

“Meaningful recovery in the months and even years ahead will require sustained rainfall over many weeks or months. A single spell of wet weather may improve conditions locally, but it is often insufficient to fully replenish groundwater and reservoir stocks after an extended dry period.

“An important consequence of drought is that very dry soils can become less able to absorb rainfall when it does arrive. This can increase surface runoff and can even contribute to localised flash flooding, particularly if rain falls intensely over a short period. The links between drought and flooding is complex and depends on lots of factors, including rainfall intensity, soil type and catchment conditions.

“The current situation highlights the need to improve long-term resilience to both drought and flood risk as climate variability increases, and shows one more damaging impact of the burning of fossil fuels.”

Prof Simon Willcock, Director of Sustainable Farming Systems, School of Agriculture, Policy & Development,  University of Reading, said:

What do we know so far about the impact of the weather on crops?

“The combination of drought and repeated periods of extreme heat is already affecting UK agriculture. Lack of rainfall reduces the water available to crops, while high temperatures increase water loss and can directly disrupt important stages such as flowering and grain filling. When droughts happen in relation to crop growth is important – a few extremely hot, dry days at a sensitive stage can have a disproportionate effect on final yield.

“We are now beginning seeing those effects in the harvest. Wheat yields are generally disappointing and there are reports of lower yields from spring barley and oats, alongside very poor grass growth in some areas. However, the picture is not uniform – some winter crops established well before the drought intensified and some crops, including oilseed rape, have performed relatively strongly.

“Globally, the same processes are occurring in other major agricultural regions. Heat and drought are already affecting parts of Europe, particularly summer crops. The concern is not simply one drought in one country, but an increasing risk of extreme weather affecting several important food-producing regions in the same year.”

What crops have been most affected?

“The crops most vulnerable are generally those that are still actively growing, are rain-fed, or encounter drought and extreme temperatures during sensitive stages such as flowering or grain filling.

“In the UK, spring-sown crops have been particularly exposed because much of their development has coincided with very dry conditions. Wheat yields are also being affected; current harvest data suggest an average yield of around 6.8 tonnes per hectare so far, compared with a ten-year average of about 7.9 tonnes [1]. Grass and forage production is another major concern, because poor growth now means livestock farmers may have to use feed that would normally be saved for winter.

“Horticultural crops such as potatoes, onions and vegetables can also be particularly vulnerable because they require reliable water supplies. Irrigation can protect them, but during a serious drought that solution is itself constrained by low river flows, depleted farm reservoirs and restrictions on abstraction.

“Internationally, maize, sunflowers and other summer crops are among those currently being affected by heat and water stress across parts of Europe.”

What measures could be taken to mitigate the damage to crops?

“In the immediate term, farmers can make the best possible use of the water that is available: targeting irrigation towards the crops and growth stages where it will have the greatest benefit, using soil-moisture information to avoid wasting water, and adjusting harvest and livestock management where necessary. However, we cannot simply irrigate our way out of drought. More than 1,500 abstraction restrictions are already affecting agriculture in England, so in some places the water simply is not available.

“Some yield losses from this summer are already effectively locked in. The priority now should therefore be both limiting further damage this year and adapting farming systems to the increasingly variable climate we are likely to experience in future. Agriculture needs to become much more resilient to both drought and extreme heat. That means greater capacity to capture and store water when it is abundant, more efficient and precision irrigation, improving soils so that they infiltrate and retain more water, using more heat- and drought-tolerant crop varieties, and diversifying crops and farming systems so that everything is not vulnerable to the same weather event. This is something the University of Reading is focussing through its Agrifood Futures strategy with the aim of helping agriculture adapt the more frequent and severe extreme weather we are likely to face.

1 – https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds/gb-harvest-progress

Prof Tim Palmer, Royal Society Research Professor, University of Oxford, said:

“A critical question is whether rainfall will return this autumn and winter. If it doesn’t, it will be catastrophic for the UK in 2027. Currently a very large and unusual El Nino event is developing in the Pacific Ocean and there are significant sea surface temperature anomalies in other ocean basins. These ocean anomalies will collectively shape the position and intensities of the jet streams in the atmosphere, and hence weather patterns around the world, in the months to come. The first reliable seasonal weather forecasts for the UK this winter will be available in early September based on output from a number of different climate models from around the world (the data synthesised by the EU’s Copernicus Climate-Change Service). Most of us will be hoping these forecasts show a strong likelihood of well above-average rainfall for the coming winter. But it’s not a given and in any case, the results are necessarily probabilistic. The government needs to start planning for a worst-case scenario where the rains don’t return in sufficient amounts this winter, and next summer is similar to the last two. “

Dr Akshay Deoras, Senior Research Scientist, University of Reading, said:

“Yet another heat dome has arrived into the UK, bringing a heatwave that will peak on Thursday 13 August, with temperatures potentially reaching 36 to 37°C in parts of England. It is expected to be less humid and slightly less hot than the June heatwave, but preparedness for high temperatures is still essential. Temperatures will ease after Thursday, although the southeast of the UK is likely to see temperatures in the mid-20s persisting into the weekend. 

“Almost three-quarters of England is now in drought, with the ground baked hard and cracks appearing across the landscape. This heatwave arrives at exactly the wrong time, squeezing what little moisture remains from the soil and deepening the drought. There is no immediate sign of another heatwave next week, whilst there is also no sign of widespread, persistent rain across much of Wales and England this week. For now, the message is clear: more heat, scarce rainfall, and a drought that is proving stubbornly difficult to ease.”

Declared interests

Prof Hannah Cloke: “Hannah Cloke advises the Environment Agency, the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts, the Copernicus Emergency Management Service, local and national governments and humanitarian agencies on extreme weather and the forecasting and warning of natural hazards. She is a fellow of the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts. Her research is funded by the UKRI Engineering & Physical Sciences Research Council, the UKRI Natural Environment Research Council, the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office and the European Commission.”

Prof Simon Willcock: “I have no conflicts of interest to declare.”

Prof Tim Palmer: “No interests to declare”

Dr Akshay Deoras: “I’ve no conflict of interests to declare.“