August 12, 2026

expert reaction to current drought and fifth heatwave

Scientists comment on the current drought situation and fifth heatwave in the UK. 

Prof Hannah Cloke OBE, Regius Professor of Meteorology and Climate Science, University of Reading, said:

“The fact that the government’s Cobra crisis response has been triggered is welcome, in showing these dangerous hot and dry conditions are now being taken seriously at the highest level.  It shows the difficulty in preparing for such extreme conditions and should prompt a discussion about how we avoid finding ourselves in the same position again.

“Southern Water’s application to restrict activities such as filling swimming pools, washing vehicles and watering some outdoor spaces is a good example of the pressures that can emerge when dry weather persists and demand remains high.  These measures may be necessary in the short term, but they are emergency responses instead of long-term solutions.  It also shows that the UK is now facing questions of water supply fairness which can highlight other social divisions.  When one part of society feels it is being unfairly treated and facing shortages, while another group is seen to be profligate with water use, it can sow the seeds of division, as we have seen in other water-stressed parts of the world.

“As our climate changes, thanks to our continuing fossil fuel use, periods of drought and extreme heat are becoming more common according to IPCC reports.  We should move from reacting to crises to planning for them.  We need everyone to play their part in a national plan that cuts waste, boosts storage and makes better use of water across regions before shortages start to irreversibly damage national life.”

Mr. Tony Scott, Environmental Scientist, Rothamsted Research, said:

Comparison of the hot summer of 1976 to that of 2026, as measured at Rothamsted Research (Harpenden)

“The Met Office have set the temperature threshold for the start of a heat wave as 28 °C for Hertfordshire, based on the 30-year mean 1991-2020 summer mid-point of 15 July [1]. The definition of a heatwave is three or more days above or equal to this threshold.

“If we look at 1976 and 2026, both to 10 August, for maximum air temperatures >=28°C, then this year has had more (24 days) than 1976 (19 days) with more expected in the coming days. For the whole of 1976, there were 21 days >=28°C. As for heatwaves, 2026 has had three so far with three or more consecutive days above 28°C up to 10 August: 24-26 May, 22-27 June, and 6-12 July – a total of 16 days. However, in 1976 there was one continuous heatwave lasting from 23 June to 8 July (also 16 days). If we look at the mean maximum air temperature from 1 May to 10 August for both years, then for 2026 it has been 23.6°C (max. 34.2°C; min. 11.7°C) and for 1976 it was 22.0°C (max. 33.0°C; min. 13.5°C). This is a difference of +1.6 °C in 2026 compared with 1976 for the same period.

“Total rainfall in the period May to July in 1976 was 78.4 mm, with just under half of this falling on one single day on 15 July 1976 (35.8 mm). In 2026, there has been 100.5 mm for the same period, with most of the rain falling at the beginning of June (69.6 mm over the first eleven days). In both years, the previous year saw less than the 30-year average rainfall (763.5 mm) falling, with 612.3 mm and 565.6 mm recorded for 1975 and 2025, respectively. This may have contributed to drought conditions in the following years of 1976 and 2026.”

1 – https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/learn-about/weather/types-ofweather/temperature/heatwave

Dr Kevin Grecksch, Associate Professor of Water and Environmental Governance, University of Oxford, said:

“In and of itself a hosepipe ban can be effective, but it is difficult to police as it affects millions of people and water companies. If we stick to the hosepipe ban it can be quite effective as it reduces unnecessary use. If the drought gets worse other measures will kick in, first a drought permit. However, water companies need to apply for a drought permit long before they can implement it, so often in the past water companies applied for a drought permit but when it was granted, they no longer needed it.

“Generally speaking, the repertoire of drought and water scarcity measures is very limited in England and Wales. If you compare us to similar jurisdictions (US, Australia) we are using only a fraction of what we could do to manage drought and water scarcity. In my research I have pointed out that the Environment Agency, who is responsible for approving water companies’ drought plans could use its power more effectively by incentivising water companies to expand their portfolio of drought and water scarcity measures.

“Another issue is that most measures are reactive, i.e. we apply them once a drought has kicked in. However, we need to be more proactive and increase drought resilience, in order to withstand a drought as best as we can. This includes widening the portfolio. For example, on the supply side we could make a lot more use of water reuse schemes. Wastewater can be treated to a standard where it can be used for agricultural purposes for example (further treatment for human reuse is also possible and practiced in other countries). This could help us not need to use freshwater for irrigation. A further option could be to recharge aquifers. So, if we have excess water somewhere it could be pumped into a nearby aquifer where it mixes with the existing water in the aquifer. A flood is good example where instead of trying to get rid of the water as quickly as possible into the nearest sea, we should try storing this water and using it later. More reservoirs can be an option, but they take a long time to build, are controversial and very expensive. However, they can/should be part of a portfolio of measures. Water companies should speed up and increase their efforts of course to fix leaky pipes, there is a massive backlog across the country.

“On the demand side we should look into making water saving devices an obligation for newly-built houses instead of just a suggestion. Bringing down our per capita or per household consumption could save a lot of water; water consumption labelling on white goods similar to what we already do with electricity labelling should be implemented. And we should get everyone metered (so far it is a little over 50% of households) It would mean better planning for water companies and everyone would pay for how much water they actually use.

“In summary, there are lots of measures that should be thought of in an integrative manner. Focussing solely on reservoirs will only get us so far.”

Dr Kevin Collins, Senior Lecturer in Environment and Systems at The Open University, said:

How effective are the techniques we are using to mitigate damage (e.g. hosepipe bans)?

“Damage is not the right term here.  Mitigate demand is more appropriate.There is widespread criticism of water companies for not reducing leakages rates.   But a garden hosepipe which can use 1000/litres per hour is like a broken pipe.  It is a waste of water and also the energy used to treat and pump the water.   Hosepipe bans typically reduce demand for non-essential use of water by around 5-10%, although this does vary from region to region and user to user.  

“Other techniques for reducing domestic demand are less easy to communicate to households as the amount of water we use is often hidden in our appliances such as washing machines and dishwashers.  There is widespread misunderstanding about how much water we each really use. A survey in 2020 by Water UK revealed almost half of respondent thought they used less than 20 litres per household. The average is around 140 l/day per capita.

“Simple, easy changes in behaviour like taking showers rather than baths; turning off taps; saving any water run from taps; and always running washing machines or dishwashers full all do help to reduce domestic demand.  And for the 60% of households which are metered that will also save money.”

Are there additional measures we could take that would be effective?

“In the longer term, metering is a key mechanism to reduce demand further.Spikes in demand from unmetered households during heatwaves is always significantly higher than metered households.  Everyone has the right to water, but no-one has the right to waste it on non-essential uses during a drought.

“New digital smart water meters (much like smart energy meters) are very effective at revealing leakages in real time, although research to date suggests that users do not use them to track their own daily water use.  This may change over time if water companies introduce flexible tariffs to reduce demand water use at ‘peak times’ of water use. Of course, water metering has to be done with awareness of the disproportionate impact on some households.”

How long is the drought expected to last?

“There is no fixed timetable for how long droughts last because of differences in rainfall, topography, land use, hydrology, water sources, uses and users, demand profiles and population densities.  However, in the public realm, any appreciable rain event tends to be interpreted and understood as the end of the drought. (There is a well-known image of a red London bus advert declaring droughts during a downpour.)  And as autumn and winter sets in, public concern about drought and any support for water conservation measures fades very quickly.  This means there is often a disconnect between public understanding of a drought and the many months it may take aquifers and reservoirs, or even years in the case of the environment, to recover.  This disconnect means that we need to improve our national understanding of water and especially how, why and when droughts start, what happens during a drought, how we can mitigate the diverse impacts and how and when droughts end.  This is a starting point for more resilient water governance and adapting with droughts.”

Dr Jonathan Mackay, BGS Senior Hydrologist, said:

“While many surface water sources across the country are currently under pressure, many of our major aquifers are more resilient to prolonged dry weather during the summer, as they are primarily recharged during the wetter, cooler months from autumn through to spring. Many parts of the UK had good rainfall last year which filled many of the aquifers. Provided wetter weather returns in the late autumn, groundwater levels in many aquifers are likely to remain within, or return to, the normal range.”

Dr Matthew Paul, Plant Scientist, Rothamsted Research, said:

“The heat has sped up the development of most crops resulting in earlier maturity and harvest and compounded the effects of drought. Earlier maturity can mean there has been less time to build up carbon reserves necessary for good yields. Less water may restrict the filling of grain and tubers. Wheat yields are estimated to be 14% lower than the 10-year average according to AHDB harvest survey, whereas barley yields are only slightly down. Yields of potatoes are predicted to be 10-15% lower and sugar beet yields are likely to be strongly affected, but this could be mitigated by late summer and autumn rain before the sugar beet harvest. Fruit yields are lower although the fruit is sweeter. In contrast, oilseed rape harvests are estimated to be about 17% higher than the 5-year average benefiting from the sunny hot conditions. A solution to crops still growing would be to supply water, but in most cases, there are not ready sources of water that could be utilised.”

Dr James Clarke, ADAS Research Director, said:

What do we know so far about the impact of the weather on crops & livestock?

“Both heat stress and drought can lead lower yields and poorer quality crops. The crops that do grow are more vulnerable to disease and pests.

“Livestock have less to eat, less shade, and demand even more water in order to cope with the extreme temperatures. With grazing in short supply, farms are already using scarce supplies of feed they conserved earlier for use this coming winter. These stocks are unlikely to be replaced easily given the current weather patterns.

“There is also the cumulative impact of multiple events. If we experience a flood event, followed by drought conditions and then another flood event, plants under a constant state of stress are less resilient. We have been fortunate this year in that rainfall last winter was sufficient to replenish reserves. Had that not been the case, growing conditions this summer would have been far more challenging.

“As a comparison, fifty years ago the UK experienced a devastating drought, with the cumulative effect of two dry summers in 1975 and 1976, with a dry winter in between, leading to extensive crop losses.”

What crops & livestock have been most affected?

“Due to their high reliance on irrigation, crops such as potatoes, salad crops, strawberries, raspberries, and tomatoes are especially vulnerable to regional water scarcity. Fruits like apples, pears, and cherries that transpire as they grow will be physically smaller. Dry hard ground would prevent root vegetables like carrots from being harvested. Scorched grassland means less food available to livestock.

“Looking ahead to knock-on impacts, most arable farmers will be looking to begin sowing soon, and machinery can’t drill when the soil is bone-dry and cracked. Any delays to crop establishment in 2026 may affect yields in summer 2027.”

What measures could be taken to mitigate the damage to crops & livestock?

“There are a number of ways growers can boost their resilience to drought but some are easier and cheaper to do than others.

“Reservoirs, dams, or rainwater harvesting systems can store water and provide irrigation during dry periods. Protected horticulture (e.g., tomatoes, strawberries) especially can benefit from lined reservoirs. Installing new infrastructure will require some capital investment, but there may be opportunities to share water storage or abstraction resources between neighbouring farms.

“Automated, sensor-based systems (e.g., soil moisture probes, evapotranspiration data) can optimise irrigation timing and amounts, reducing waste and ensuring crops receive water when most needed. This is especially good for fruit and field vegetables and is relatively easy to implement with modern technology.

“Other methods to conserve water include investigating and fixing leaks in irrigation systems, reusing irrigation water wherever possible, and using trickle irrigation for top fruit.

“More long-term solutions involve increasing soil organic matter to boost soil water retention by applying compost, green manures, or livestock manures. For example, field vegetables benefit from companion planting with cover crops using strip tillage to increase organic matter and water retention.

“Applying organic mulches (e.g., straw, composted green waste) around perennial crops and top fruit can reduce water evaporation. For example, applying mulch around apple trees every three years will boost its water holding capacity.

“Crop choices made early in the season to pre-empt drought conditions matter. Look to select crop varieties bred for drought tolerance or deep rooting systems.

“For livestock needs, look for opportunities to use boreholes or ‘grey’ water when natural sources dry up. Producers will also need to invest in improved ventilation and insulation to reduce risk of heat stress.”

Comments sent out on Tuesday 11 August:

Dr Umair Choksy, Senior Lecturer in Management, University of Stirling Business School, said:

What do we know so far about the impact of the weather on crops?

“The prolonged hot and dry conditions are already affecting agricultural production through lower yields in some crops, unusually early harvesting, reduced grass growth and increasing pressure on irrigation. Lower wheat yields mean less domestic grain potentially moving into milling, food manufacturing and animal-feed supply chains. UK flour millers usually obtain around 80–85% of their wheat domestically, so the quantity and quality of the British crop influence how much processors can source locally and whether they need to adjust sourcing or increase reliance on imports.

What crops have been most affected?

“The clearest pressure so far is on some cereal crops, particularly wheat. Different crop impacts create different downstream vulnerabilities. Weaker wheat production affects milling and feed chains; pressure on fresh fruit and vegetables can be felt more quickly because these products are perishable and cannot be stored in the same way as grain. Equally, poor grass growth can create a delayed effect by increasing livestock feed requirements later in the year.

What measures could be taken to mitigate the damage to crops?

“The same weather shock can have very different consequences for different producers. Resilience depends partly on capabilities and supply-chain relationships that are already in place before disruption occurs — including the ability to absorb the initial shock and then adapt production, sourcing and relationships in response. Producers appear better able to respond where there is stronger collaboration, information sharing and institutional support, whereas simply passing additional requirements and costs upstream can leave producers carrying much of the burden themselves.

“The practical implication for the current drought is that resilience cannot sit with farmers alone. Farmers, processors, retailers and government all have an interest in maintaining reliable food production, so there needs to be better coordination around investment, information and risk. Imports can provide an important buffer when UK production falls, but they should complement rather than replace stronger domestic resilience, because greater dependence on another producing region can simply shift the exposure to climate risk elsewhere.”

Prof Tim Palmer, Royal Society Research Professor, University of Oxford, said:

“Due to human-induced climate change, we can expect warmer wetter winters and hotter drier summers. This is clear from simple thermodynamic arguments: during the wet season (winter) climate-change enhanced water vapour in the atmosphere will make the season wetter still – during the dry season (summer) enhanced warming will lead to the land surface drying out, reducing rainfall. The broad trends in rainfall from observations appear to confirm these simple thermodynamic expectations. 

“None of this fully addresses what has happened this year. The proximate cause of this year’s drought is a persistent high-pressure (anticylonic) system which has steered weather patterns away from Western Europe. If we are to quantitatively attribute the current drought to climate change, it is vital that we have credible estimates of how climate change influences the likelihood of these persistent high-pressure systems, particularly in the spring and early summer before the land dries out (once the land has dried out, high-pressure systems will have a tendency to become locked in by atmosphere-land interactions). Such a question involves not just the thermodynamics of climate, but the role of greenhouse-gas forcing on the dynamical interactions which affect circulation patterns in the atmosphere and oceans. 

“Current generation climate models do a poor job of simulating these persistent high-pressure systems, likely because of inadequate spatial resolution in the models. Hence we are unable to quantitatively attribute the current drought conditions to climate change, though there seems little doubt from observational trends in circulation patterns that it is significantly implicated. 

“A related problem is whether the droughts and heatwaves in other parts of the world are linked together by hemispheric-scale circulation patterns called Rossby-wave teleconnection. Observational studies suggest these Rossby waves are becoming more resonant (like a glass ringing) due to climate change [1]. However, our current generation climate models cannot confirm this, again because of model deficiencies.

“Put simply, there is a lot we don’t know about regional climate change, to be able to do climate attribution quantitatively. It is time to improve climate models substantially if we are to answer these attribution questions with confidence. This was a key conclusion of a recent US National Academy of Sciences report on extreme-event attribution [2]. 

“This is vital if we are to invest properly in infrastructure to adapt to climate change. The science of regional attribution of climate change is not all done and dusted, as many seem to think.”

1 – https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2504482122

2 – https://www.nationalacademies.org/projects/DELS-BASCPR-23-02

Dr Wilson Chan, Hydroclimatologist, UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH), said:

“A warmer climate speeds up evaporation with the atmosphere becoming ‘thirstier’ which further dries up rivers and soils. Climate change has intensified the current drought through record-breaking temperatures as repeated heatwaves in 2026 have increased evaporation and encouraged higher water demand from households and other sectors. Coupled with the prolonged deficit in rainfall since at least the start of spring, we have seen a rapid decline in river flows and large soil moisture deficits.  

“Arid summer episodes like 2026 with repeated heatwaves exacerbating hydrological and soil moisture impacts are indicative of what we expect in a warming world. The latest river flow projections show most UK catchments will experience significant declines in river flows (at least 30 % reductions in low flows in many catchments, particularly in the summer months), with increasing severity of river flow droughts this century. 

“Average winter rainfall is projected to increase with warming; a ‘whiplash’ between extremes is expected to get worse with climate change “ 

Dr Jeff Da Costa, Researcher in Hydrometeorological Hazards & Disaster Risk, University of Reading, said:

Are there additional measures we could take that would be effective?

“We have become very good at measuring extremes and ranking records, but the value of that information is in what we do with it. When records are repeatedly broken, each one should inform how we prepare for the next event. Drought creates pressures across water, agriculture, energy, transport, ecosystems and health, and these pressures interact. The challenge now is making sure our preparedness keeps pace with the risks we can already see developing.”

When we next get rainfall, will we be at a higher risk of flooding because of dry ground?

“This summer has also made us vulnerable to flooding. After months of hot and dry weather, very dry or compacted ground can absorb intense rainfall less effectively, allowing water to run off quickly. We can move from drought conditions to flooding in a very short space of time. Flood preparedness needs to be ongoing because the risk is very real, even during a drought. The return of rain can change the type of risk we face very quickly.”

How long is the drought expected to last?

“The return of rainfall is not the same as recovery from drought. River levels can respond relatively quickly, while groundwater, reservoirs and soils recover over different and often much longer timescales. A landscape can look green again and rivers can rise while significant water deficits remain. We need to look at the wider water system before concluding that a drought is over.”

Dr Antje Weisheimer, Principal NCAS Research Fellow, University of Oxford, said:

“On the current question of how certain we can be when attributing individual weather events to climate change and how might climate change have contributed to the current drought and heatwaves, I would like to highlight an important new paper that was recently published in Nature Geoscience. In this study, colleagues from Leipzig, Germany, investigate how climate change has affected European summer drying and explicitly examine the respective roles of large-scale atmospheric circulation and thermodynamic changes in shaping Europe’s droughts over recent decades. 

“The current heatwave is, in strong agreement with the findings of the paper, primarily driven by an anomalous and exceptionally persistent atmospheric blocking pattern over western Europe and the British Isles. This circulation anomaly has been sufficiently strong to divert Atlantic weather systems that would normally bring cooler, wetter and more unsettled conditions, effectively preventing these weather front from reaching much of Europe. The paper demonstrates that circulation-induced changes have played a substantial role in the long-term summer drying observed across Europe. The authors show that with a background of increasingly frequent anticyclonic (blocking) warm and dry weather conditions, the thermodynamics component of climate change can further amplify the drying. At the same time, they emphasise that projections of Europe’s future hydroclimate remain highly uncertain because future circulation changes remain poorly constrained in climate models.

“Extreme event attribution faces similar uncertainties when it comes to atmospheric circulation. Current attribution methods often struggle to account adequately for circulation changes and the dominant role they play in producing hot and dry European summers. Many attribution studies conclude that anthropogenic climate change has increased temperatures during heatwaves, but they often fail to address the underlying dynamical processes responsible for the heatwave itself. Heatwaves such as those experienced this summer across weather Europe and the UK are fundamentally caused by persistent high-pressure blocking (anticyclonic) circulation patterns, upon which anthropogenic warming acts to further elevate temperatures. In this context, the thermodynamic contribution is secondary in the sense that it intensifies the heat but does not generate the circulation anomaly itself. 

“The influence of anthropogenic climate change on the frequency, persistence and characteristics of atmospheric blocking remains highly uncertain. A major reason for this uncertainty is that climate models often struggle reproduce the observed historical changes in atmospheric circulation, limiting confidence in projections of future circulation changes.

1 – https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-026-02050-w

Dr Clair Barnes, Research Associate, Grantham Institute, Imperial College London, said:

“The science linking this summer’s heatwaves to climate change is crystal clear – fossil fuels have made every single one hotter and more likely. While atmospheric drivers like June’s ‘omega block’ would still exist in an unpolluted world, they would lead to less extreme temperatures. Unlike attribution of complex storms or localised downpours, the connection between human-caused warming and extreme heat is very easy to track, and hundreds of peer-reviewed studies back this up. Our findings at Imperial and World Weather Attribution this summer show that climate change is causing heatwaves to reach dangerously hot temperatures that would have been inconceivable in a preindustrial climate and directly driving up heat-related deaths. We also found that the current drought isn’t only the result of the lack of rainfall but has been made much more severe by these prolonged high temperatures. Hotter air can hold more moisture and so the extra heat we’ve seen has been making the atmosphere thirstier, sucking water from the ground.”

Prof Neil Ward, Professor of Rural and Regional Development, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia (UEA), said:

Impacts

“The drought is reducing yields and meant an earlier harvest. The Energy and Climate intelligence unit has estimated a £300m-£400m financial hit for the arable sector alone. Grass growth has also been impacted, meaning livestock farmers will have to buy in more animal feed.”

Crops

“Wheat, spring barley and oats have been heavily affected.  Wheat is the biggest concern because it is so extensively grown. Potato crops are vulnerable to drought. Irrigated crops may face restrictions on water abstraction.”

Short-term Mitigation

“There may be some scope to improve flexibility around water abstraction, but more water for crops may mean more restrictions on other uses.”

Medium-term Mitigation

“Improving soil organic matter can improve soil water retention. Building up the amount of decomposed plant and animal material turns soil into a better “sponge” that can capture and hold more water during wet periods and release it more slowly during droughts. Farmers are calling for more flexibility in being able to build on-farm reservoirs. Groups of farmers could establish or strengthen water sharing arrangements.”

Longer-term Mitigation

“Agriculture and the food system is not well enough prepared for the climate change we will face over the coming decades. We need to build resilience into farming systems. To adapt and mitigate climate change will require significant change across our food system, including how and what we produce, how we best use land, and what we eat.”

Dr Michael Byrne, Reader in Climate Science, University of St Andrews, said:

“Warming temperatures and decreasing relative humidity in a changing climate mean that more water is being sucked from soil, reservoirs, and vegetation. This leads to more severe droughts, like what we’re seeing across England and Wales this summer. It is simple physics in action. The UK and Europe are on the drought frontline because they are warming so rapidly, and the situation will worsen year-on-year until net zero is reached.”

Dr Yanchen Zheng, Senior Research Associate in Hydrological Modelling at the University of Bristol, said:

“Drought is a long-lasting event, and it will not necessarily end soon after the rain returns. A rainfall deficit spreads through the water cycle, drying out soils so that grass turns brown, lowering flows in rivers, and drawing down groundwater levels, with each of these recovering at its own pace.

“At the same time, hot dry weather pushes our water demand up, so we take more water from rivers and aquifers in exactly the weeks when they are at their lowest. If that water is used unsustainably, the drought is prolonged, and river flows and groundwater levels can take months or even years to return to normal. This is why we urgently need more research into how human water use shapes the duration and severity of drought in a changing climate.

“Current models tend to overestimate how much water remains in rivers – an issue most apparent in South East England, which relies more on groundwater, is densely populated, and already short of water.”

Prof Hannah Cloke, Regius Professor of Meteorology and Climate Science, University of Reading, said:

“The impacts of the current drought on water resources are becoming increasingly significant across most parts of England. After a long period of below-average rainfall, river flows, reservoir levels and soil moisture have all been declining, placing pressure on both public water supplies and the natural environment.

“While water companies and regulators have a range of measures available to manage demand, like restrictions and hosepipe bans, these are aimed at slowing the rate at which water resources are depleted. It will not end the drought itself. 

“Meaningful recovery in the months and even years ahead will require sustained rainfall over many weeks or months. A single spell of wet weather may improve conditions locally, but it is often insufficient to fully replenish groundwater and reservoir stocks after an extended dry period.

“An important consequence of drought is that very dry soils can become less able to absorb rainfall when it does arrive. This can increase surface runoff and can even contribute to localised flash flooding, particularly if rain falls intensely over a short period. The links between drought and flooding is complex and depends on lots of factors, including rainfall intensity, soil type and catchment conditions.

“The current situation highlights the need to improve long-term resilience to both drought and flood risk as climate variability increases, and shows one more damaging impact of the burning of fossil fuels.”

Prof Simon Willcock, Director of Sustainable Farming Systems, School of Agriculture, Policy & Development,  University of Reading, said:

What do we know so far about the impact of the weather on crops?

“The combination of drought and repeated periods of extreme heat is already affecting UK agriculture. Lack of rainfall reduces the water available to crops, while high temperatures increase water loss and can directly disrupt important stages such as flowering and grain filling. When droughts happen in relation to crop growth is important – a few extremely hot, dry days at a sensitive stage can have a disproportionate effect on final yield.

“We are now beginning seeing those effects in the harvest. Wheat yields are generally disappointing and there are reports of lower yields from spring barley and oats, alongside very poor grass growth in some areas. However, the picture is not uniform – some winter crops established well before the drought intensified and some crops, including oilseed rape, have performed relatively strongly.

“Globally, the same processes are occurring in other major agricultural regions. Heat and drought are already affecting parts of Europe, particularly summer crops. The concern is not simply one drought in one country, but an increasing risk of extreme weather affecting several important food-producing regions in the same year.”

What crops have been most affected?

“The crops most vulnerable are generally those that are still actively growing, are rain-fed, or encounter drought and extreme temperatures during sensitive stages such as flowering or grain filling.

“In the UK, spring-sown crops have been particularly exposed because much of their development has coincided with very dry conditions. Wheat yields are also being affected; current harvest data suggest an average yield of around 6.8 tonnes per hectare so far, compared with a ten-year average of about 7.9 tonnes [1]. Grass and forage production is another major concern, because poor growth now means livestock farmers may have to use feed that would normally be saved for winter.

“Horticultural crops such as potatoes, onions and vegetables can also be particularly vulnerable because they require reliable water supplies. Irrigation can protect them, but during a serious drought that solution is itself constrained by low river flows, depleted farm reservoirs and restrictions on abstraction.

“Internationally, maize, sunflowers and other summer crops are among those currently being affected by heat and water stress across parts of Europe.”

What measures could be taken to mitigate the damage to crops?

“In the immediate term, farmers can make the best possible use of the water that is available: targeting irrigation towards the crops and growth stages where it will have the greatest benefit, using soil-moisture information to avoid wasting water, and adjusting harvest and livestock management where necessary. However, we cannot simply irrigate our way out of drought. More than 1,500 abstraction restrictions are already affecting agriculture in England, so in some places the water simply is not available.

“Some yield losses from this summer are already effectively locked in. The priority now should therefore be both limiting further damage this year and adapting farming systems to the increasingly variable climate we are likely to experience in future. Agriculture needs to become much more resilient to both drought and extreme heat. That means greater capacity to capture and store water when it is abundant, more efficient and precision irrigation, improving soils so that they infiltrate and retain more water, using more heat- and drought-tolerant crop varieties, and diversifying crops and farming systems so that everything is not vulnerable to the same weather event. This is something the University of Reading is focussing through its Agrifood Futures strategy with the aim of helping agriculture adapt the more frequent and severe extreme weather we are likely to face.

1 – https://ahdb.org.uk/cereals-oilseeds/gb-harvest-progress

Comments send out Monday 10 August:

Prof Tim Palmer, Royal Society Research Professor, University of Oxford, said:

“A critical question is whether rainfall will return this autumn and winter. If it doesn’t, it will be catastrophic for the UK in 2027. Currently a very large and unusual El Nino event is developing in the Pacific Ocean and there are significant sea surface temperature anomalies in other ocean basins. These ocean anomalies will collectively shape the position and intensities of the jet streams in the atmosphere, and hence weather patterns around the world, in the months to come. The first reliable seasonal weather forecasts for the UK this winter will be available in early September based on output from a number of different climate models from around the world (the data synthesised by the EU’s Copernicus Climate-Change Service). Most of us will be hoping these forecasts show a strong likelihood of well above-average rainfall for the coming winter. But it’s not a given and in any case, the results are necessarily probabilistic. The government needs to start planning for a worst-case scenario where the rains don’t return in sufficient amounts this winter, and next summer is similar to the last two. “

Dr Akshay Deoras, Senior Research Scientist, University of Reading, said:

“Yet another heat dome has arrived into the UK, bringing a heatwave that will peak on Thursday 13 August, with temperatures potentially reaching 36 to 37°C in parts of England. It is expected to be less humid and slightly less hot than the June heatwave, but preparedness for high temperatures is still essential. Temperatures will ease after Thursday, although the southeast of the UK is likely to see temperatures in the mid-20s persisting into the weekend. 

“Almost three-quarters of England is now in drought, with the ground baked hard and cracks appearing across the landscape. This heatwave arrives at exactly the wrong time, squeezing what little moisture remains from the soil and deepening the drought. There is no immediate sign of another heatwave next week, whilst there is also no sign of widespread, persistent rain across much of Wales and England this week. For now, the message is clear: more heat, scarce rainfall, and a drought that is proving stubbornly difficult to ease.”

Declared interests

Mr. Tony Scott: “The work is part of the Rothamsted Long-Term Experiments – National Bioscience Research Infrastructure (RLTE-NBRI) and is in collaboration with UK Environmental Change Network (UKECN) for which I am the local site manager for UKECN Rothamsted.  The work is funded by UK Research and Innovation – Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (UKRI-BBSRC) under award BBS/E/RH/23NB0007 (2023-2028). Previous awards from the BBSRC were Grants BBS/E/C/00005189 (2012-2017) and BBS/E/C/000J0300 (2017-2022).”

Dr Kevin Grecksch: “I have no interests to declare”

Dr James Clarke: “As ADAS Research Director, James is not directly involved in managing a business unit and no longer has any regular direct involvement with industry-funded work. ADAS carries out work for & funded by government, commercial clients, NGOs, levy (e.g. Agriculture & Horticulture Development Board) & government and maintains independence through ensuring any recommendations are evidence-based. ADAS has been funded by Defra, via a sub-contract to the Met Office to undertake work in relation to adaptation to climate change.”

Dr Matthew Paul: “We received industry funding for research – Syngenta £1.1 million 2012-2015; ICL £150 k 2014-2015. I am Co-founder of Rothamsted/ Oxford University spinout, SugaROx.”

Dr Umair Choksy: “No conflicts of interests to disclose for above comments.”

Dr Wilson Chan: “No interests to declare”

Dr Jeff Da Costa: “No competing interests to declare”

Dr Antje Weisheimer: “I don’t have any interests to declare.”

Dr Clair Barnes: “Nothing to declare”

Prof Neil Ward: “Neil Ward is a Professor in the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research at the University of East Anglia. He is a co-founder and Director of Root and Reason – The Food Resilience Collective. He received funding from UKRI from 2022 to 2025 for his work. He is lead author of Ward et al (2025) Roadmap for Resilience: A UK Food Plan for 2050. https://rootandreason.org.uk/the-roadmap/

He is a member of the Labour Party and the National Trust.”

Dr Michael Byrne: “no interests to declare”

Dr Yanchen Zheng: “no interests to declare”

Prof Hannah Cloke: “Hannah Cloke advises the Environment Agency, the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts, the Copernicus Emergency Management Service, local and national governments and humanitarian agencies on extreme weather and the forecasting and warning of natural hazards. She is a fellow of the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts. Her research is funded by the UKRI Engineering & Physical Sciences Research Council, the UKRI Natural Environment Research Council, the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office and the European Commission.”

Prof Simon Willcock: “I have no conflicts of interest to declare.”

Prof Tim Palmer: “No interests to declare”

Dr Akshay Deoras: “I’ve no conflict of interests to declare.”

For all other experts, no reply to our request for DOIs was received.