April 16, 2020

expert reaction to COVID-19 symptom tracker app suggesting cases have fallen

A COVID-19 symptom tracking app has suggested that cases in the UK have fallen. 

Prof Keith Neal, Emeritus Professor in the Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases, University of Nottingham, said:

“This COVID tracker app is looking for symptoms that might be COVID-19.  Under half of patients tested for COVID-19 are found to be positive and the symptoms they report can have many causes.  A fall in these symptoms strongly supports the benefits of lockdown as this will interfere with the transmission of all respiratory pathogens as there are less person-to-person contacts.

“It is difficult to interpret hotspots in small places such as Boston as they may have only a few number of users which makes statistical interpretation problematical.  The study is skewed in population terms as you have to have as smartphone and therefore younger than the average population.  Although not a random group it remains a large group for surveillance on a large scale.  One hotspot appears to be the outer Hebrides which as an area has one of the lowest COVID-19 death rates.

“The tool is useful as it is simple to use and data is produced in a timely manner and the accuracy should improve with the warmer weather as other respiratory viruses decline in the warmer weather.”

https://covid.joinzoe.com/data

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