April 23, 2020

expert reaction to changing case definitions of COVID-19 in China and effect on epidemic curve and case figures

A study, published in Lancet Public Health, reports on the changing case definitions of COVID-19 in China and effect on epidemic curve and case figures.

Prof Chris Dye, Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford, said:

“The paper probably offers a useful adjustment of the number of Covid-19 cases in China, but does not change the essential conclusion about the low incidence and effectiveness of COVID-19 control in China.

“They did not merely “flatten the curve”, they annihilated it.

“Even when multiplied by a factor 4 (not a surprising or unreasonable adjustment), the number of cases (and deaths) in China per capita is still very low (cases 50 * 4 = 200/million) compared with European countries and the USA (UK 2000/million).

“This new article should not be used to promote views that there has been some kind of “cover up” in China.
“Some of the essentials of COVID-19 control in China are spelled out in:

An investigation of transmission control measures during the first 50 days of the COVID-19 epidemic in China
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/30/science.abb6105 

doi: 10.1126/science.abb6105

The effect of human mobility and control measures on the COVID-19 epidemic in China
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/25/science.abb4218
doi: 10.1126/science.abb4218.”

“Effect of changing case definitions for COVID-19 on the epidemic curve and transmission parameters in mainland China: a modelling study” by Tim K Tsang et al. was published on 21 April in Lancet Public Health
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpub/article/PIIS2468-2667(20)30089-X/fulltext

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/S2468-2667(20)30089-X

All our previous output on this subject can be seen at this weblink: www.sciencemediacentre.org/tag/covid-19

Declared interests
None received.