August 14, 2012

expert reaction to association between suicide rates and the economic recession

Economic recession and rising unemployment may have driven more than 1,000 people in England to commit suicide, according to a study published in the BMJ.

Professor Keith Hawton, Centre for Suicide Research University of Oxford, said:

“The findings of the study by Barr and colleagues are of considerable interest. They show that in males the number of suicides in England is associated with the level of unemployment, with a marked increase in suicides in 2008 at the beginning of the economic recession. They also show that suicides increased more in regions with greater increases in levels of unemployment. The authors have estimated the possible size of the increase in suicides in 2008-10 that might be attributable to unemployment.

“An increase in suicides at a time of economic recession is not a new finding, having been reported, for example, for the Great Depression of the late 1920s, early 1930s, and for the economic downturn in the South-East Asian region during the 1990s. However, correlations of this kind need to be interpreted with caution. A correlation between rates of unemployment and rates of suicide at the population level does not necessarily imply a causal link between unemployment and suicide (although of course this would be in keeping with such a relationship). Secondly, the data in this study do not indicate whether the rise in suicides is accounted for by increased numbers of suicides in unemployed people. They could, for example, be due to increases in other groups in society, although this might still be related to the economic recession. Finally, assuming that the association indicates a causal relationship, the findings do not tell us why people who become unemployed at times of recession are at increased risk. More detailed studies of people who die by suicide at times of recession would be needed to elucidate this.

“Thus, while these findings are of considerable interest and certainly raise concerns, they must be interpreted carefully. It is also important that they are not over-dramatised in a way that might increase thoughts of suicide in those affected by the recession.”

‘Suicides associated with the 2008-10 economic recession in England: time trend analysis’ by Barr et al., published in the BMJ on 14 August 2012.