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Scientists comment on a wildfire on Arthur’s Seat in Edinburgh.
Theodore Keeping, Research Associate in the Centre of Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, said:
“Wildfires are an emerging risk to ecosystems across the British Isles. As the climate warms the likelihood of the hot, dry and windy conditions that mean the highest risk of wildfire is increasing. Research from the Met Office has shown that this sort of extreme weather becomes much more likely in the Scottish summer with climate change (https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/22/559/2022/). The weather conditions at Arthur’s Seat reflect this trend, with very dry vegetation having contributed to the scale of this fire.
“In the UK, most wildfires are ignited by people – both accidentally and intentionally. Grassland and heathlands in the UK have always experienced wildfire, but the concern is that fires grow more intense and frequent as we see increasingly warm and dry conditions. In the UK, most wildfire occurs in the spring fire season – affecting dry, dormant vegetation as temperatures begin to rise. Much warmer summers could mean a rise in summer wildfire, where tinder dry conditions can lead to much more intense and difficult to control fires.”
Dr Francesca Di Giuseppe, Principal Scientist & Thematic Application Team Leader, Lead fire forecast activities, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, said:
“The UK has already experienced unusually high fire risk very early in the season, with the first fires breaking out in Galloway Forest Park following exceptionally dry conditions in March and April. This early dryness burned off old vegetation from the previous year. Such early fires are usually not catastrophic, and their ecological impact can be mild.
“However, spring dryness can set the stage for larger, harder-to-control summer wildfires, especially under persistent or repeated heatwaves, as we have seen. An analysis of the live fuel moisture content in the region encompassing the Arthur’s seat shows deviations in the water content of live vegetation compared to typical conditions. This kind of dry anomaly provides an indication of fire intensity – drier live vegetation means more biomass available to burn, often resulting in more severe fires.
“In general, a study conducted last year by ECMWF (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-024-00575-8) found that much of Europe could see up to a tenfold increase in the probability of extreme or out-of-season fires — and the UK is no exception. The consensus is that climate change is likely to bring worse fires in the future. Thus, we should prepare for it.”
Dr Rory Hadden, Rushbrook Senior Lecturer in Fire Investigation, University of Edinburgh, said:
“Wildfires in and around Arthur’s Seat in Edinburgh occur relatively often. Like this one, these typically burn relatively small areas (compared to other wildfires in Scotland) but can have relatively large impacts due to the location and proximity to people – the plume of smoke can exacerbate respiratory conditions as well as the direct danger to those on the hill. It has been very dry in Edinburgh this year. This means that vegetation – particularly dead growth from previous years – is very dry. The weather in Edinburgh has been reasonably good recently (sunny and warm) but with quite strong winds. This all acts to dry out even more of the dead vegetation making it easy to ignite and once ignited, for the fire to spread rapidly. Especially on the steep terrain of Arthur’s Seat.
“The location is popular with visitors and locals alike and with it being a nice day yesterday it was very busy. We know that most fires in Scotland are started by the actions of people (malicious or otherwise). The large number of people visiting and the very dry conditions are therefore a good mix for a wildfire to start and to spread. But it is too early to identify the specific cause of the fire in this instance.
“More generally we are seeing increases in wildfires in the UK due to climate and land use change. These are both complex issues with many different drivers. In the UK and Scotland, we need to increase awareness of wildfire risk but also to think carefully about how we manage our landscapes and the options we have to minimise the consequences of wildfires when they do occur. We are developing good understanding of fire occurrence and behaviours in the UK and we need to translate this into coordinated actions which requires consensus from a range of stakeholders who can help tackle this challenge including researchers, landowners, politicians and the public.”
Declared interests
Dr Francesca Di Giuseppe: “I declare no competing interest on providing this information.”
Dr Rory Hadden: “Current and recent funding:
US Department of Agriculture, Forest Service
US Department of Commerce, National Institute of Standards and Technology (USA)
UKRI EPSRC
Defence and Security Accelerator
US Department of Defence, Strategic Environmental Research and Development Fund
Ministry of Housing Communities and Local Government
Forestry Commission
Natural England.”
For all other experts, no reply to our request for DOIs was received.