May 7, 2020

expert comments on when to ease the lockdown restrictions in the UK

Some comments on easing the lockdown in the UK after many newspapers led with the story today.

This comment is specifically on the news that Scotland has extended it’s lockdown

Prof Sheila Bird, Formerly Programme Leader, MRC Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge, said:

“COVID-mention deaths in care homes in Scotland are not yet assuredly on a downward trajectory & Scotland reproduction number still too close to 1 at around 0.9, i.e. too little head-room.

“Therefore, extending the lockdown is sensible in public health terms. Furthermore, if it was eased too early and then a surge of infections forced a second lockdown, that would be major setback both in terms of public health and likely economically too.

“Before easing a lockdown, we need to have a good grasp on population-wide, what % is infected pre-lockdown, repeated studies post-lockdown for tracking and also in key strata of the population who give blood for other reasons, what % have IgM and IgG antibodies to coronavirus-2 and how long are antibodies retained. Scotland is already monitoring (repeat) blood donors.”

Below comments are more generally on easing of lockdown restrictions

Dr Stephen Griffin, Associate Professor at Leeds Institute of Medical Research (LIMR), University of Leeds, said:

“My concerns regarding the relaxation of lockdown come from many levels. First, let me say that I understand the strain that this causes in terms of the economy, secondary health impact and psychologically. I also have every sympathy for the fact that those least well off or most vulnerable are likely to suffer most during this time and support any measure that alleviates such distressing inequality.

“However, the fact that we are still seeing many thousands of new infections every day based upon only limited testing simply cannot be reconciled with the idea of having suppressed the virus to a safe, or even safer level. Also, without effective point of care serology we remain wholly in the dark in terms of how widespread this virus may be within the UK population. Second, whilst I’m certain that the majority of the British public are wholly sensible, conscientious  and compliant, one explanation for the ongoing rates of infection is that a minority of individuals are not so; thus, there is a risk that any inch given may lead to miles being taken.

“However, lastly, and most importantly, the notion that SARS-CoV2 is merely hastening the demise of those within the most vulnerable groups and that those within low risk populations are exempt from harm feels wrong at many levels; I’m sure the families of those with no apparent risk factors who sadly succumbed to COVID19 might agree. How many of us are, or have friends and/or relatives that are elderly, suffer with chronic or terminal conditions, or take medication that lowers their immune system? The notion that these people can be placed in a box to be brought out later when it’s “safe to do so” will further disadvantage those concerned. Societies are judged by the way they treat their most vulnerable.

“This outbreak, one of the worst in Europe, has grown from a handful of cases in February to the crisis that we are now witnessing; history alas cannot be rewritten. I’m not saying that lockdown shouldn’t be relaxed eventually, but the time to do so, despite what must be immense pressure on the Government to get life back towards normal, does not need to be now. The rate of new infections is simply not comparable with places that have successfully come out of this process. From history, it was the second wave of Spanish Influenza in 1919 that was the most devastating by far in the UK; we have the means and, I hope, the strength of will to prevent history repeating itself.”

Dr James Gill, Honorary Clinical Lecturer, Warwick Medical School, and Locum GP, said:

“We missed the May bank holiday. Often the first time after winter where people let their hair down in the sun, maybe get the BBQ going and generally take it easy. On any bank holiday if you indulge too much on the first day of the break, you’ll likely end up with a serious hangover for the rest of celebration.

“People are getting excited about the lifting of the lockdown which initially helped to flatten the curve of COVID-19 cases, has subsequently lead to the sustained fall in cases we are seeing. These are good things, and everyone who has made sacrifices during this period of social isolation has contributed to that.

“BUT, if the lock down is eased, and I think that is the word we will see – eased – we all need to be cautious with our reactions to the changes.

“Whilst people will want to celebrate the start of a return to freedom of movement, just like the celebrations over a Bank Holiday, we must not over do it! By gradually, carefully, lifting restrictions it will mean that scientists are able to monitor for signs of a resurgence in COVID-19 cases, which might mean the roll back of restrictions being paused, or perhaps reinstated.

“COVID-19 has changed how many people perceive the world, and there will be many benefits to having a “new normal” rather than things as they were before. But ANY changes in restrictions need to be done carefully, and with strong reliance on data rather than a strong pressure of a political nature, so that the return to any form of normality is not pushed further back.”

Prof Jonathan Ball, Professor of Molecular Virology, University of Nottingham, said:

“To even contemplate lifting lockdown before the capacity to rapidly perform community testing for coronavirus infection has been proven and before the expanded team of contact tracers is in place strikes me as folly. Both of these elements need to be in place before we have significant relaxation of social distancing otherwise this virus could bounce back unseen.

“It might be possible to start to allow some activities to resume as normal, which will give us time to see how well the necessary surveillance systems will cope. But we need to ask some very important questions, not least how many ongoing cases is acceptable to the government. We are aware that they have invested in vaccines and trials and they will need to have a level of community infections to show that they work; but I think the government need to be honest about what they consider to be an acceptable level and at what point they would revisit the situation.”

https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-update-first-minister-speech-7-may-2020/

All our previous output on this subject can be seen at this weblink: 

www.sciencemediacentre.org/tag/covid-19

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