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Scientist comment on El Nino and its impact on UK climate following a blog from the Met Office.
Dr Amulya Chevuturi, senior hydroclimate scientist, UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH), said:
“This blog highlights the significant impacts of the El Niño event on the UK climate. Given the current intense drought in the UK, rainfall impacts are of utmost immediate concern. From a water resources perspective, where and how much rain falls this autumn and winter will be critical in determining how quickly the UK’s exceptionally low river flows recover.
“The latest Met Office forecast supports the broad scientific consensus that a strong El Niño is likely to increase the chances of wetter, stormier conditions for the UK from October to December, though the North West is expected to be worse affected than the South East.
“Should the expected wetter weather be focused on the North West, there is a chance of drought conditions extending in the South East throughout the winter and further into 2027, which the Met Office says is likely to be the warmest year on record.
“However, given the unprecedented strength of the current event and the small number of comparable El Niño events affecting the UK in recent decades, some uncertainty remains around its impacts on our climate. El Niño affects the UK through complex ocean-atmosphere links between the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, and the unusually warm Atlantic currently adds further uncertainty to its impacts.”
Prof Amanda Maycock, Joint Chair of the Met Office Academic Partnership and Professor of Climate Dynamics, University of Leeds, said:
“All signs point towards a very exceptional El Niño event this winter. Similar forecasts from other meteorological centres show the Met Office’s El Niño prediction is in the middle of the pack, building confidence it is unlikely to be overestimating where we are headed. Some forecasts show an even stronger event so we cannot rule this out. We should be preparing for imminent effects worldwide, including heavy rain and flooding in south-western US, East Africa and south-east China as well as drought in the Amazon basin, Southern Africa and eastern Australia. Although these seem like far flung places, these regions can affect what happens in the UK through global food supply and energy security.”
Dr Akshay Deoras, Senior Research Scientist, National Centre for Atmospheric Science & Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, said:
“El Niño is growing as if there is no tomorrow, and there are still months of fuel left before the event reaches its peak this boreal winter. There is no doubt that we are seeing a historic El Niño event developing, with impacts that could ripple across the globe through the rest of 2026 and well into 2027. It is not just the Met Office’s climate model predicting an ‘unprecedented’ El Niño. Models from several meteorological centres around the world are pointing in the same direction, with an unusually strong level of agreement.
“The fingerprints of El Niño are already beginning to show. South Asia’s crucial monsoon, one of the first major weather systems to feel its influence, is already weaker than average. The region now faces growing concerns over drought and potential impacts on agriculture.
“El Niño has no robust link to the UK’s annual mean temperature or rainfall, but it can influence seasonal variability. In particular, it can increase the likelihood of a wet, windy and mild autumn followed by a cooler, drier winter. After an exceptionally dry summer across Wales and England, hard, dry soils may struggle to absorb intense rainfall. Heavy downpours could therefore run off quickly, increasing the risk of flash flooding, surface water flooding and disruption. Strong winds could also cause damage and put additional pressure on transport and infrastructure.
“A cooler, drier winter could increase heating demand and put greater pressure on energy systems. However, a stronger El Niño does not automatically mean stronger impacts in the UK. Its biggest consequences may instead be indirect, as disruption to global agriculture and energy demand feeds through into food prices and energy costs.
“The event is also unfolding against a backdrop of rapid global warming. El Niño’s additional heat is likely to push global temperatures even higher, raising the prospect of 2027 becoming the hottest year on record globally. Long-term global warming remains the more significant driver of the UK’s rising temperatures and increasing risk of extreme heat. It is still too early to say what next summer will bring for the UK. However, El Niño’s additional warming, combined with an already warmer climate, could provide the ingredients for a hot summer.”
Prof Hayley Fowler FRS FRMetS, Professor of Climate Change Impacts, and Director of Centre for Climate and Environmental Resilience, Newcastle University, said:
“The super El Niño evolving in the Pacific will likely be the biggest ever recorded, reaching or exceeding the levels of the 1877-1878 El Niño which caused widespread impacts, including famines and around 50 million deaths (3-4 percent of the global population), mostly across Asia and South America.
“Although El Niño is a natural phenomenon that happens every 2 to 7 years, it is happening in an climate already loaded towards extreme heat, as we’ve seen this summer in the UK and Europe. Climate change, from our burning of fossil fuels – oil, gas and coal – has already raised temperatures globally, with the last 3 years reaching the lower Paris Agreement level of 1.5 degrees. El Niño will push temperatures even higher, meaning we will likely have the warmest year on record next year by a significant margin, and damaging extremes will increase even more.
“But this doesn’t necessarily mean we will see another scorching UK summer in 2027. For the UK, the bigger concern is that El Niño causes wet and stormy autumns and winters. The last strong El Niño in 2015-16 produced a series of storms, including the massive flooding from Storm Desmond. It is likely we will see similar storms this coming winter.
“Importantly, the UK needs to be better prepared for extremes at both ends of the weather spectrum: hotter, drier periods that put pressure on water, agriculture and buildings, but also for heavier rainfall and flooding in winter months. UK winter rainfall has already increased by 10% since 1980 as a direct result of the fossil fuels we are burning, causing more floods. A warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, increasing the potential for intense downpours when storms arrive.
“There is still uncertainty over whether climate change is making El Niño itself stronger by trapping additional heat in the ocean, but we do know that the effects of a warmer atmosphere will amplify its impacts. Our infrastructure was largely designed for the climate of the past; increasingly, it has to cope with the extremes of the future and we must invest urgently in adaptation as well as rapidly reducing our global reliance on fossil fuels.”
Prof Liz Stephens, Professor in Climate Risks and Resilience, University of Reading:
“The very latest forecasts continue to grow confidence that the end of this year will see an exceptional El Nino event. This is something predicted not just by the Met Office, but by nearly every forecasting centre around this world. The Met Office predictions are actually some of the most conservative out there, with other forecast centres estimating an even stronger El Nino event.
“We would expect this El Nino event to peak around November / December this year, but the enormous amount of energy which is released as the warmer Pacific waters heat the atmosphere above it will continue to affect weather patterns globally well into 2027.
“Already El Nino is making its expected impact. The ongoing Indian monsoon season has seen less rainfall than normal, and satellite rainfall estimates show that parts of East Africa, Central America and SE Asia are experiencing record dry conditions during what should be their rainy seasons.
“Given the amount of heat that the equatorial Pacific Ocean is releasing to the atmosphere, El Nino is adding to the overall climate change direction of travel, so 2027 is set to be the warmest year on record.”
Prof John Marsham, Professor of Atmospheric Science, University of Leeds, said:
“Although forecasts must always account for uncertainty, it is clear from both the ocean temperature patterns we are already seeing, and every major forecast system, that we have to be prepared for unprecedented impacts in the tropics from this El Nino: floods, droughts and heat. The science is clear that this will affect UK weather, but it is also vital that people understand that the UK is also affected indirectly by El Nino. For example, an El Nino of this magnitude will affect global food production and push up UK food prices, which are already being increased by this summer’s heatwaves and droughts, which themselves were fueled by the climate crisis. These forecasts for 2026 and 2027 also reveal the world we must prepare for in the coming years, as such extremes driven by the climate crisis will only get worse until we have phased out fossil fuels.”
Prof Tim Palmer, Royal Society Research Professor, University of Oxford, said:
“A set of seasonal weather forecasts, which will include the effects of the evolving El Nino on the UK winter rainfall, will come out around September 5th from the Copernicus Climate Change Service, from climate prediction models around the world. If the models all show a consistent signal, we can be confident that the forecasts are reliable. We can hope that they will show abundant rain over the UK. If they don’t, we’re in serious trouble. There’s little point speculating until these forecasts are out.”
Prof Bill McGuire, Professor Emeritus of Geophysical Hazards, UCL, said:
“The Met Office analysis is absolutely spot-on, and in agreement with other scientific forecasts, all of which suggest that the world is in for one hell of a ride.
“The astonishing and unprecedented amount of heat building across the eastern Pacific Ocean is all but certain to make this the most powerful El Nino in living memory – possibly even the biggest in several centuries. The addition of much of this heat to the atmosphere will make it extremely likely that next year will be the hottest on record globally, perhaps even reaching – even exceeding – 1.7C above pre-industrial times. The knock-on impacts on global weather patterns are also expected to be huge – bringing drought and wildfire conditions to the Amazon and parts of Australia, torrential rainfall and floods to California, and a reduced South Asian monsoon.
“Powerful El Ninos typically bring mild, stormy Autumns and early Winters to the UK, followed by bitter cold, although this isn’t set in stone.
“Because El Nino strength shows natural variability across the centuries and millennia, it is not yet possible to confirm whether the inexorable rise in global heating is driving an increase in intensity. It would, however, be a surprise if the superposition of a much hotter eastern Pacific Ocean, on top of already higher global temperatures, didn’t result in the development of more extreme El Ninos.”
Dr Chloe Brimicombe, Climate scientist, University of Oxford, said:
“We know that El Nino amplifies baseline warming and this causes a rise in average temperatures globally and changes weather patterns.
“Through interlinkages in our weather and ocean systems if patterns align in the North Atlantic at the same time as El Nino it’s possible that winter weather can be stormier in the UK.
“Through seasonal forecasting efforts we can start to plan for these broad weather changes. But building resilience to climate change into all parts of society which is different to El Nino which is natural will help for both El Nino and Climate Change Impacts.
“The UK met office is using seasonal forecasting for their analysis this is an accurate indication of weather trends over a season.
“We are missing a probabilistic element to this forecast which would give a better indication of the accuracy. This is where we run multiple forecast projections and see whether they agree.
“This is important for agencies to prepare for this coming winter season in the UK. We have already seen this with World Meteorological Organisation briefings.”
Declared interests
Dr Amulya Chevuturi: “Amulya is largely funded by public bodies but has a project in Ghana funded by the Global Risk Modelling Alliance which works in climate and disaster risk solutions.”
Prof Amanda Maycock: “I serve as Joint Chair for the partnership of the University of Leeds with the Met Office.”
Dr Akshay Deoras: “Akshay Deoras has grant funding from a joint UK and India project on monsoon climate impacts, and has advised the UK and Indian Governments on climate and weather impacts.”
Prof Hayley Fowler: “Hayley J. Fowler advises national government and various industrial sectors on extreme weather and climate change impacts. She receives funding from UKRI, the Royal Society, the Natural Environment Research Council, the Medical Research Council and the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council. She is a member of the UK Climate Change Committee and a Fellow of the Royal Society.”
Prof Liz Stephens: “No conflicts. Liz also works for the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre.”
Prof John Marsham: “Prof Marsham receives research project funding from UKRI, FCDO, Gates foundation and the Met Office.”
Prof Tim Palmer: “None.”
Prof Bill McGuire: “Bill McGuire is Professor Emeritus of Geophysical Hazards at UCL and author of The Fate of the World: a History and Future of the Climate Crisis.
No conflict of interests.”
Dr Chloe Brimicombe: “No Disclosures.”