March 2, 2021

expert comment on latest NHS England hospital death numbers

Deaths of patients who have died in hospitals in England and had either tested positive for COVID-19 or where COVID-19 was mentioned on the death certificate are counted.

Prof David Leon, Professor of Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, said:

“Fall in numbers of COVID deaths in hospital in England steeper among those aged 80+ years than at age 60-79 years: a possible vaccination effect?

“Data published at 4pm today (2 March) by the Department of Health and Social Care in England confirm a continuing steep decline in hospital deaths mentioning COVID-19 on the death certificate among those aged 80+ years.  On 23 February for the first time the number of deaths occurring among those aged 80+ years (94) was the same as those occurring at age 60-79 years.  While deaths among both age groups have been falling steeply since mid-January, in general throughout the pandemic daily deaths in the 80+ age group have been appreciably higher than among those aged 60-79 years.

“The peak of COVID-19 hospital deaths in England in the second wave was on 19 January 2021.  Of the 861 deaths occurring on that day, 482 were among those aged 80+ and 320 were among those aged 60-79 years.  From the peak on 19 January 2021, every 7-days the number of deaths among those aged 80+ fell on average by 26% compared to 22% among those aged 60-79 years.

“This slightly steeper rate of decline among those 80+ years compared to those aged 60-79 years could be explained by a change in admission rates by age, whereby fewer people aged 80+ are admitted to hospital compared to those who are younger.  It could also indicate a small reduction in case fatality in hospital among the eldest.  A relatively greater reduction in hospital admissions in those aged 80+ is what would be hoped given prioritisation of this group in the national vaccination strategy.  Whether vaccination also means that those who are admitted to hospital might be slightly less sick and have a higher survival chance is unclear.”

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

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