September 29, 2020

expert comment about the science of COVID-19 and pubs and restaurants

There has been further discussion in the media about COVID-19 transmission within pubs and restaurants. 

Dr Michael Head, Senior Research Fellow in Global Health, University of Southampton, said:

“There is good evidence that highlights bars and restaurants as the source of an outbreak (see links below).  There will then be onward transmission around the community, particularly with household members, but the start of that chain of transmission is often from an indoor crowded setting such as a pub.  Other noted sources of an outbreak have included cruise ships and international conferences.  If we can break that chain of transmission, then we reduce the potential for onward community transmission, hence the reason why there is a focus on the hospitality industry.”

Links:

1 Public Health England weekly surveillance reports that looks at contact tracing and when cases are reported to have gone, see the most recent one here:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/921561/Weekly_COVID19_Surveillance_Report_week_39_FINAL.pdf

There’s this bit from the text: “Since 10 August, people who test positive are also asked about places they have been and activities they have done in the days before becoming unwell; eating out was the most commonly reported activity in the 2-7 days prior to symptom onset. Although this does not describe confirmed sources of infection, the information may be helpful to indicate possible places where transmission is happening.”

And that links to figure 23, on page 25.

2 Tourists refusing to isolate in Iceland, outbreak tracked back in particular to a bar: https://www.icelandreview.com/society/covid-19-in-iceland-violated-isolation-and-infected-over-100/

3 US CDC study, where cases were more likely to have reported dining in restaurants: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6936a5.htm?s_cid=mm6936a5_x

4 Hong Kong: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-1092-0 (para starting “The largest cluster comprised 106 cases and was traced back to a collection of four bars…”)

5 US: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.23.20178236v1.full.pdf (certainly reference to superspreading transmission via indoor places like conferences etc)

6 Japan: Behind care homes and hospitals, restaurants and bars were the most common place for superspreading events to occur in this paper: https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/9/20-2272_article

Comments sent out yesterday on pubs and the 10pm closing time rule: https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-arguments-over-pubs-closing-at-10pm/

All our previous output on this subject can be seen at this weblink:

www.sciencemediacentre.org/tag/covid-19

Declared interests

None received.