September 9, 2026

expert reaction to a prospective analysis of hot drinks and oesophageal cancer

Scientists comment on a prospective analysis of hot drinks and oesophageal cancer as published in International Journal of Cancer.

Prof Muy-Teck The, Professor of Molecular Oral Oncology, Queen Mary University of London, said:

“The press release largely reflects the findings of this large UK cohort analysis, but it risks oversimplifying a nuanced observational result. The study combines nearly one million participants from the Million Women Study and UK Biobank, with over 2,300 oesophageal cancers accrued, and reports a clear, internally consistent pattern: self‑reported consumption of drinks at “very hot” temperatures is associated with a substantially higher risk of oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (RR 3.17, 95% CI 2.49–4.03), but not adenocarcinoma (RR 0.92, 0.76–1.12). After accounting for temperature, high‑frequency consumption (≥6 hot drinks/day) also increases squamous cell carcinoma risk (RR 1.71, 1.51–1.94) with only minimal association for adenocarcinoma. These results are directionally consistent with prior evidence from Asia, Africa, South America and the Middle East, where very high drink temperatures (~70 °C) have long been implicated in squamous cell carcinoma risk, and they extend that evidence to Western populations with more moderate temperature ranges.

“A key limitation, however, is that perceived drink temperature is inherently subjective, and it remains unclear whether individuals who tolerate or prefer very hot drinks have altered thermosensation or mucosal sensitivity that might itself reflect underlying biological predisposition to squamous cell carcinoma and lead them to prefer hotter drinks; this possibility cannot be excluded and complicates interpretation of causality. More broadly, temperature is self‑reported and likely misclassified, squamous cell carcinoma case numbers—though larger than in previous UK work—are still modest, and residual confounding cannot be excluded.

“These limitations do not fatally undermine the findings, but they do mean the results should be interpreted as robust associations rather than causal proof. The press release is responsible if it emphasises that absolute squamous cell carcinoma risk in the UK is low, that temperature is a modifiable but relatively minor risk factor, and that smoking, alcohol, obesity and reflux remain dominant drivers of oesophageal cancer. Overspeculation—particularly implying that normal hot drinks are dangerous or that temperature is a major cause of oesophageal cancer in Western populations—would misrepresent the real‑world implications of this otherwise high‑quality study.”

‘Hot Drinks and Oesophageal Cancer: Prospective Analyses in Around 1 Million UK Adults’ by Keren Papier et al. was published in International Journal of Cancer on Wednesday 9 September 2026.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/ijc.70654

Declared interests

For all other experts, no reply to our request for DOIs was received.