August 6, 2026

expert reaction to decadal doubling of Siberian methane emissions

A study published in Science looks at doubling of Siberian methane emissions. 

Prof Neil Ross, Professor of Polar Science and Environmental Geophysics at Newcastle University, said:

“This is a high-quality paper that demonstrates a doubling in methane release – a highly potent, albeit short-lived, greenhouse gas – from Siberian permafrost between 2010-2023.

“Siberia is demonstrated to be a hotspot in release compared to other Arctic permafrost regions, e.g. Canada or Alaska.  The authors do a very good job of diving into the atmospheric and air-sea-land interactions factors driving this methane flux.  They explore how this release of methane is likely to continue up to 2050, and they are honest about the uncertainties (e.g. the abstract refers to “weakly nonlinear relationships”). This is significant, because if the release of methane from Siberian permafrost continues at this rate, the world will continue to warm irrespective of reductions in man-made greenhouse gases.

“The study draws attention to the specific geographical distribution of methane release in the Arctic from 2010-2023 and provides large-scale satellite measurements calibrated by some ground-based observations.  This will benefit science as it allows permafrost and carbon researchers to know where the geographic locations of methane release are to better target their field observations.  It will also benefit wider society as it identifies the ‘problem’ source locations and outlines the likely drivers behind the increase in methane flux.

“The paper reinforces the point that there are natural feedbacks in the global carbon system, beyond anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, that will exacerbate future climate change; and it convincingly shows that what goes on in the Arctic doesn’t stay in the Arctic.  This has impacts on us all: recent wildfires in Europe, including in the Scottish Cairngorms, have demonstrated that a warmer-world future is, sadly, already here.

“The paper demonstrates to me that there is a real urgency to climate mitigation strategies.  The release of methane from the vast Arctic permafrost stores has always been a worrying future prospect.  This paper persuasively demonstrates that methane flux from permafrost has already been increasing across parts of Siberia and will likely continue up to (and beyond) 2050.  If this continues, then even without mitigation of manmade emissions, the global climate will warm with all its associated economic, societal and safety implications.”

Prof Julian Murton, Professor of Permafrost Science, University of Sussex, said:

“The study provides a strong remote sensing data set on recent decadal methane emission rates and trends across Siberia. From this data set, it provides two interesting and different explanations about how climate warming feedback and atmospheric circulation have enhanced methane emissions in contrasting geographic regions of western and eastern Siberia.

“In terms of western Siberia, there are no data on active-layer thickness, permafrost thaw, or ground-ice content, which is strange given that the enhanced methane emissions from western Siberia are attributed to active-layer deepening and also melt of ground ice, which is strongly influenced by the nature of superficial deposits and may be a substantial contributor to ground wetting. Monitoring data on active-layer thickness are available at https://www2.gwu.edu/~calm/data/north.htm”

Prof Euan Nisbet, Emeritus Professor of Earth Sciences, Royal Holloway University of London, said:

“Climate feedbacks are driving fast-growing methane emissions from natural systems. That’s happening strongly in the Tropics, especially in flooded wetlands in Africa. Now this new work by Zhu et al. shows the impact of climate change in Arctic and Boreal Siberia, where wetlands are warming and forests are burning. 

“We have little information about feedbacks to climate warming in remote places where access is difficult, or because of politics or conflict. Siberia is huge. It’s a major source of natural methane emissions, as well as from the gas industry. But there are very few in situ observations. 

“This important new work uses Japanese GOSAT satellite measurements to address the problem, using meteorological analyses to set the satellite measurements in the context of on-ground tall-tower measurements in Siberia and also the US NOAA surface measurement database. It’s a good example of how we can use the power of first-rate Japanese space tech coupled with painstaking work sustaining remote stations that measure greenhouse gases, to understand climate-warming emission feedbacks, even in inaccessible areas.

“The work is a collaboration between UK and European teams and Chinese and Japanese scientists, an excellent illustration of how scientific teams are collaborating internationally to understand our shared planet. We are at last beginning to halt the growth in fossil fuel methane emissions but natural system feedbacks are growing unexpectedly, pushing towards the failure of the Paris Agreement. It’s a dangerous time for the climate.”

Prof Jeffrey Kargel, Senior Scientist at the Planetary Science Institute in Tucson, said:

“This study is a compelling example of complex feedbacks in Earth’s climate system. To explain a complex pattern of accelerating methane emissions, the authors draw on the rapidity of Siberia’s climatic warming and influences on precipitation and snow cover, vegetation growth, and the formation of methane, as well as the extreme sustained hot spells and extreme wildfires that have battered Siberia in recent years.

“The authors have helped us to understand what can happen with multiple different extreme, nonlinear responses to climate change – which together are a serious scientific challenge with so many causes and effects.  Human-modified nature is no doubt yet more complex.  For example, the vertical distribution of methane-rich permafrost and how changing surface conditions propagate downward would add further complexity in the geographic patterns of methane emissions and uncertainty in future trends. 

“As a planetary scientist, I am struck by partial knowledge transfer to and back from Mars.  While Mars does not do wildfires, some other climate-change feedback mechanisms – possibly involving methane – have been active.  Climate changes on Mars have exceeded those in Earth’s climate history.  When we consider the periods of exceptionally rapid climate change on Earth (like the abrupt end of Ice Age climate 11,700 years ago) and geological inferences that similarly rapid changes appear to have impacted Mars, climate change and tipping points seem to be shared planetary features – a serious concern as we continue to inadvertently engineer Earth’s climate.”

‘Decadal doubling of Siberian methane emissions due to warming-induced fires and methanogenesis‘ by Sihong Zhu et al. was published in Science at 19:00 UK time on Thursday 6 August 2026. 

DOI: 10.1126/science.aea5828

Declared interests

Prof Neil Ross: “historically, I was employed by the University of Edinburgh as a postdoctoral researcher from 2007-2012. I currently co-supervise a PhD researcher in the School of GeoSciences at Edinburgh. The supervision information is publicly available on the research tab of my university webpage https://www.ncl.ac.uk/gps/staff/profile/neilross.html”

Prof Julian Murton: “I confirm that I have received no industry funding for my research in Siberia, though I have had industry consultancy funding for work on engineering geology in the UK from Arup, Mott McDonald, and HS2. My research in Siberia has been privately funded, paid for by other people’s grants or been as in-kind support. I collaborate with a number of Russian scientists on writing up research about Siberian permafrost. I was funded by NERC to carry out a greenhouse gas emission monitoring project on permafrost in western Arctic Canada.”

Prof Euan Nisbet: “1. Many of the co-authors of the Zhu et al. paper have written papers with me in the past few years. Arctic Methane’s a small community. 

2.  I am a co-author in a separate paper on Arctic methane by G. Liu et al., very recently published in PNAS (a different Liu from the Y. Liu in the Zhu paper)

Liu, G., Peng, S., Shen, L., Ciais, P., Nisbet, E.G., Lan, X. and Michel, S.E., 2026. Observation-constrained sensitivities of Arctic methane emissions to warming. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 123(27), p.e2523274123.”

Prof Jeffrey Kargel: “no conflicts of interest”