July 30, 2026

expert reaction to analysis of recent changes in fire risk across Southern Europe

An analysis published in Scientific Reports looks at recent changes in fire risk across Europe.

COMMENTS FROM OUR FRIENDS AT SMC SPAIN:

María José Sanz, director of the BC3 (Basque Center for Climate Change Research), said:
“The research is based on robust and widely recognized international datasets, such as the ECMWF’s ERA5 reanalysis and climate data from NOAA. The results are consistent with global evidence that climate change is causing weather conditions that are leading to increasingly extreme wildfires in various parts of the world. It confirms trends showing that droughts and heat waves amplify the risk. Furthermore, it expands existing knowledge by directly linking the interannual variability of wildfire risk in southern Europe to large-scale climate patterns, specifically the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).“Although the researchers themselves point out some limitations due to a lack of data harmonization, reliance on the analytical methods used, and uncertainty regarding the ability of current climate models to predict future changes, the data do indicate that there has been a shift in fire patterns in recent years that requires new strategies, including prevention. Furthermore, there is a need to further develop new predictive systems. Likewise, the study highlights the need for reliable and interoperable data.

“The implications are critical, as the Iberian Peninsula—and Spain in particular—is the most severely affected region, accounting for a high percentage of the area burned in southern Europe during the catastrophic 2025 season and the trends observed in 2026.”

Jonathan Troncho, Technical Officer in the Knowledge and Applied Science Department at the Pau Costa Foundation, said:

“The article analyses the main meteorological variables underlying major forest fires, using the situation experienced in southern Europe in 2025 as a case study. It explains the downward trend in the area burnt and the number of fires over recent decades, alongside the increase in meteorological fire risk. The study examines the global effect of El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the regional effect of the North Atlantic Oscillation on the variability of the fire weather index finding an anti-correlation between the North Atlantic Oscillation and the fire weather index in some areas of southern Europe, but not in the north-west of the Iberian Peninsula, where fire weather index variability appears to be related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation anomalies in region 1+2, associated with La Niña. These relationships are statistical and do not in themselves demonstrate a causal link.

“The study highlights  the difference in fire regimes between the more Atlantic and the more  Mediterranean regions, particularly on the Iberian Peninsula, which calls for  differentiated strategies tailored to each context. In both contexts, the  intensification of meteorological conditions increases the likelihood that some  fires will exceed the capacity of the fire-fighting system, highlighting the  need for a paradigm shift in risk management.

“Limitations: the variables studied are purely meteorological and do not  directly incorporate fuel characteristics; although the fire weather index  estimates the moisture content of dead fuel, it does not include its quantity,  structure or continuity. Only the high rainfall and the resulting vegetation  growth in the spring of 2025 are mentioned in qualitative terms. Apart from  surface conditions, recent scientific literature on extreme fire behaviour also  includes the vertical structure of the atmosphere and the interaction between  fire and the atmosphere as key factors in the behaviour and spread of forest  fires, particularly in southern Europe”.  
 

‘Major intensification of fire weather across southern Europe in recent decades’ by Sarah Feron et al. was published in Scientific Reports at 16:00 UK time on Thursday 30 July 2026.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-61756-4

Declared interests

Jonathan Troncho: No conflicts of interest are disclosed.

María José Sanz: No conflicts of interest are disclosed.