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Scientists comment on the Environment Agency declaring droughts in parts of England.
Dr Anna Murgatroyd, Lecturer in Hydrology, FHEA, Newcastle University, said:
“This drought comes after several months of below average rainfall in regions across the country including north Wales, east England and east Scotland. These regions are also experiencing notably low river flows and water storage in our subsurface water stores are drier than normal, which means that we need above average rainfall to overcome persistent dry conditions. As we’ve seen in recent months, these dry conditions can cascade to affect our water supplies, with some parts of south England experiencing severe water shortages in the month of May. Unfortunately, climate change is only going to exacerbate the severity, intensity and magnitude of these drought events in the future.
Our research reveals that this drought, and similar future droughts threaten the reliability of public water supplies in many regions across England and Wales, with water systems in the South and East of England most vulnerable to low rainfall (meteorological) drought events. During a 24-month national drought, for example, rivers in the Anglian, Thames and Southern basin regions display the highest frequency of low-flow days in the drought period (i.e. when flows are lower than the 15th percentile of baseline flows: Q85). In contrast, hydrological conditions in the West and North West are less impacted by the national drought event. These regions have a greater quantity of stored water in reservoirs compared to the South and East of England, which provide a buffer in extended periods of low rainfall and when water demand is high. This drought analysis indicates that the configuration of water infrastructure can be as important as climatological and hydrological factors in the resilience of water supplies.
The analysis by Murgatroyd et al. (2022) reveals that the annual probability of severe water restrictions occurring in the near future (to 2049) in the London region is high (0.185), caused by the large demand pressures in London and sensitivities to variations in low flows along the Thames and its tributaries. In the more severe far future scenario (2070-2099) the likelihood of water restrictions is projected to worsen further.”
Dr Chloe Brimicombe, Climate scientist, University of Oxford, said:
“The updated drought status of the UK is a reflection of the prolonged dry and hot weather we have been experiencing this summer. When dry weather and heat occur together this can cause both hazards to become more intense – known as compound hazards.
We need long-term planning for water resourcing in the UK. This means investment and building of reservoirs. Investment in water infrastructure to maintain as much water as possible. And sharing water between areas in the Southeast of the UK.
We should all try to conserve water – not use hosepipes where bans are in place and to keep cool focus on having shorter cooler showers. But it is still important to drink plenty of water.”
Jamie Hannaford, head of water resources and drought at the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH), said:
“The current drought is remarkable for how quickly it has progressed. After the wet winter, water resources were healthy in early spring but the position has deteriorated rapidly.
Across southern England it has been very dry since early March but this has also been punctuated with ‘flash droughts’ associated with the heatwave conditions, where high evaporation also causes the soil to dry and rivers to recede very rapidly.
“It is especially striking that the current drought comes only a year after the severe drought in 2025 that had widespread impacts on people and the environment. These two summers and other recent droughts associated with exceptionally hot, dry summers (2018 and 2022) are consistent with what we expect due to climate change.
Hydrological volatility – a ‘whiplash’ effect between extremes – is also indicative of what we expect in a warming world.
“For many rivers in the UK, flows are lower than the equivalent time in 2025 and in some cases are similar to, or below, other major drought years for this stage of the summer, including 2022 and 1976. The fourth heatwave of the year that were are currently experiencing will further increase pressure on water resources across much of the UK. Higher temperatures increase evaporation from soils, rivers and reservoirs, while also driving up water demand from households, agriculture and industry.”
Dr Jess Neumann, University of Reading, said:
“Today’s drought declaration by The Environment Agency (EA) reflects the cumulative effects of months of below-average rainfall, rather than just the recent hot weather.
“There is no one definition of drought. It refers to a lack of rainfall (meteorological drought); low soil moisture which impacts plant and crop growth (agricultural drought); and impacts to the wider water environment including low flows in rivers, falling reservoir levels and declining groundwater levels (hydrological drought).
“With pressure growing on water supplies, agriculture, freshwater habitats and wildlife across much of the UK, this is a stark reminder that the water we rely on is a finite resource.
“Today’s declaration should be seen not only as a response to current conditions, but as a signal of the need to build greater resilience into our water systems. That means reducing leakage, improving water efficiency, restoring healthy catchments and planning for floods and droughts together, because these extremes are increasingly two sides of the same climate challenge.”
Professor Hayley J. Fowler, Newcastle University, said:
“We’re entering an era of water extremes: more floods in winter, more droughts in summer, and not enough storage to bridge the gap. If we don’t act now, the taps that ran dry in 1976 could run dry again. This drought isn’t just about a lack of rain. It’s the result of hotter temperatures from a warming climate, rising water demand, ageing infrastructure and too much water being lost through leaks. Britain needs to treat water security as seriously as energy security, because once reservoirs run low, there’s no quick fix. The Climate Change Committee points to even more serious water shortages, with England alone facing a public water supply shortfall of around five billion litres per day by 2055. The warning is clear: climate change is increasing drought risk faster than we’re adapting our water infrastructure.”
Professor David M. Hannah, University of Birmingham, said:
“The declaration of drought across half of England highlights the growing impact of climate extremes on our water environment, ecosystems and socio-economic activities. Moving from winter floods to record low rainfall within months demonstrates the urgent need for both immediate water-saving measures and long-term investment in climate resilience.”
Dr Jonathan D. Paul, Royal Holloway, University of London, said:
“The EA’s declaration of drought across much of England will be increasingly commonplace due to the whiplash effects of climate change, which concentrate rainfall in more and more violent, short bursts. Unlike the recent heatwaves, which are declared in response to a prescribed number of days above a certain temperature, drought encompasses a greater number of variables and is more subjective, with more serious consequences for the environment and for us. Low river flows and negligible soil moisture have obvious knock-on effects on the ecosystem; soil is more easily eroded and ground subsidence more likely, affecting rail and road infrastructure. In the long term, aquifer depletion could pose an important risk to drinking water supply and to its. Inventive solutions, such as managed aquifer recharge (storing surplus winter surface water underground, where it is less susceptible to evaporation), should increasingly be sought, as the climate of the south of Britain increasingly resembles that of the Mediterranean in summer.”
Professor Richard Allan, University of Reading, said:
“As the climate continues to warm, the atmosphere’s thirst for water grows and this makes drought onset more rapid and severe.
Human caused climate change is intensifying the water cycle including wet and dry extremes with wilder swings between drought and deluge. This also worsens wildfire as wetter wet periods combined with higher carbon dioxide levels encourage extra vegetation growth, building more fuel for the fire that inevitably rages in subsequent intensely hot, dry episodes.
It’s only though rapid cuts in greenhouse gases across all sectors of society that more damaging climate extremes can be avoided and this requires a long term strategy, not short term fire fighting.”
Declared interests
Dr Jess Neumann: “None to declare”
Professor Hayley J. Fowler: Hayley J. Fowler advises national government and various industrial sectors on extreme weather and climate change impacts. She receives funding from UKRI, the Royal Society, the Natural Environment Research Council, the Medical Research Council and the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council. She is a member of the UK Climate Change Committee and a Fellow of the Royal Society.
Professor David M. Hannah: “For transparency, we work with the EA on various projects and we were involved in the EA “Review of the research and scientific understanding of drought” report https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/review-of-the-research-and-scientific-understanding-of-drought/catchment-processes-during-drought-a-multi-disciplinary-workshop#supplement-to-the-review-of-the-research-and-scientific-understanding-of-drought-report”
Dr Jonathan D. Paul: “No interests to declare”
Professor Richard Allan: “no conflicts of interest”
Dr Anna Murgatroyd: “Dr Anna Murgatroyd is a Lecturer in Hydrology at Newcastle University. She works frequently with water companies and regulators in England and Wales. She has collaborated with the Environment Agency and OFWAT as part of the National System Simulation Model project, funded by England’s Regulators’ Alliance for Progressing Infrastructure Development (RAPID). She currently has an Innovate UK Knowledge Transfer Project with United Utilities, and is co-supervising PhD students with partners in DEFRA, the EA, Anglian Water and Northumbrian Water.”
Dr Chloe Brimicombe: “No disclosures”
Jamie Hannaford: “No interests to declare.”