February 2, 2026

expert reaction to modelling study on HPV vaccination status in women and cervical cancer screening

A modelling study published in Annals of Internal Medicine looks at HPV vaccination status in women and cervical cancer screening. 

Dr Jo Morrison, gynaecological oncology consultant at Somerset NHS Foundation Trust, and Honorary Associate Professor at the University of Exeter, said:

Does the press release accurately reflect the science?

“Yes.”

Is this good quality research?  Are the conclusions backed up by solid data?

“This is a mathematical modelling study based on high-quality population level data from Norway.  However, as the population of Norway is small and relatively homogeneous, further studies in other populations will be needed to see if this model is applicable more widely.”

How does this work fit with the existing evidence?

“Existing evidence, such as the recent Cochrane review on effects of population- level HPV vaccination programmes, shows that HPV vaccination significantly reduces the risk of developing cervical cancer and pre-cancer.  This study’s findings are therefore in line with conversations being had internationally about the changing cost-effectiveness of cervical screening and how screening intervals could be extended in the future for those vaccinated, given how effective the combination of HPV testing and HPV vaccination is at reducing risk.”

Have the authors accounted for confounders?  Are there important limitations to be aware of?

“The study is based on the population in Norway, which has high vaccination coverage. Efficacy of HPV vaccination at an individual level also relies on the degree of herd immunity, HPV rates within the populations, and community vaccination levels, so some of the assumptions in their model may not be applicable in countries with differing vaccination rates and behaviours. However, these mathematical modelling results are exciting and show how HPV vaccination may reduce the need for cervical screening and treatments for pre-cancerous changes.”

What are the implications in the real world?  Is there any overspeculation? 

“The NHS Cervical Screening committee has recently made changes to the cervical screening programme in England to reduce the interval to 5-yearly cervical screening for all, not just those over 50.  This is based on evidence from increased sensitivity of cervical screening with HPV testing (as per a previous Cochrane review on diagnostic test accuracy of HPV testing) and reflex cytology (cells looked at only if the HPV test is positive), as well as significantly reduced rates of high grade cell changes on cervical screening tests for those aged under 30, since vaccination programmes began in 2008.  At present the UK does not change screening intervals based on HPV vaccination status, but this is being considered for the future, as more data emerge and IT systems are adapted to account for differing vaccination status.”

Prof Jo Waller, Professor of Cancer Behavioural Science, Queen Mary University of London (QMUL), said:

“This paper contributes to the mounting evidence that people vaccinated against HPV may need far less frequent cervical screening than is currently recommended. Alongside modelling the clinical, workforce and health economic implications of doing less screening, it will be vital to carefully consider the way that such changes would be communicated to the public. Cervical screening has been reduced from 3-yearly to 5-yearly for younger women across the UK over the last few years. This has led to anxiety and confusion for many people, in part due to low public understanding of HPV and inadequate communication of the rationale for interval changes. In order to meet cervical cancer elimination targets, it will be vital to increase screening uptake in older, unvaccinated cohorts. This must be done alongside communicating the safety of less frequent screening for vaccinated women, once there is sufficient evidence for policy change.”

‘Optimizing Cervical Cancer Screening by Age at Vaccination for Human Papillomavirus: Health and Resource Implications’ by Kine Pedersen et al. was published in Annals of Internal Medicine at 22:00 UK time on Monday 2 February 2026. 

DOI: 10.7326/ANNALS-25-03192

Declared interests

Dr Jo Morrison: I am member of the NHS cervical Screening research Innovation and development Committee, which advises on cervical screening research in England but does not advise on cervical screening policy. I perform research into cervical screening and HPV vaccination. I am an author on the recent Cochrane Human papillomavirus vaccination review.

For all other experts, no reply to our request for DOIs was received.