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Scientists comment on the UK Health Security Agency’s flu and COVID-19 surveillance report.
Prof Antonia Ho, Professor and Honorary Consultant in Infectious Diseases, University of Glasgow, said:
New figures show a continued increase in test positivity (17 to 21%), though the rate of increase in hospitalisation has slowed down slightly (24%). Although the highest case numbers are in those aged 5-14 years and 15-44 years, the steepest rise in hospitalisation is in older age groups (aged >75 years), who are most vulnerable to flu complications and poor outcome. Furthermore, managing hospitalised influenza patients (averaging 2660 patients per day) is clearly exerting an enormous pressure on an already overstretched health service.
Vaccine uptake is over 70% in those aged over 65 years, but remains low (<40%) for those aged <65 years with an underlying health condition, pregnant women and frontline health and social care workers. Additionally, just over 40% for nursery and school-age children are vaccinated. I would strongly urge those eligible to make an appointment to get the vaccine, and those who are not eligible through the vaccination programme, can also access vaccine in local pharmacies. Recently published data from UKHSA show that the vaccine is effective at preventing severe disease, with data released from Scotland today also supporting this (https://publichealthscotland.scot/news/2025/december/new-evidence-from-scotland-shows-that-the-flu-vaccine-provides-important-protection-against-severe-illness/)
Prof Punam Mangtani, Professor of Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), said:
“The now published analysis of the effectiveness of influenza vaccines by the UKHSA is reassuring. It shows good protection in children and adults and adults with protection in those 65 and older similar to previous periods despite there being a new variant of the influenza A H3N2 circulating this year. The analysis included a useful check that protection against illness including hospitalisations were not due to bias by those vaccinated in the start of the season often being healthier and more able to attend for vaccination. The study showed little protection in the first few days after vaccination when antibodies are not yet expected to be present but were increasingly protective with time especially 2 weeks later. Protective antibodies take 2 weeks to fully rise. Having the vaccine as soon as possible will help reduce the risk of illness especially over the coming holiday period. “
UKHSA National flu and COVID-10 surveillance report
Declared interests:
Prof Antonia Ho; “I have previously been funded by Public Health Scotland to undertake enhanced surveillance for influenza and SARS-CoV-2 (2021-2025). I was previously employed as a clinical consultant for the WHO Global Influenza Programme (2023-24). I am currently funded by Pfizer and MRC to evaluate the real-world vaccine effectiveness of RSV vaccine.”
Prof Punam Mangtani: “I have no conflicts of interest”