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Scientists comment advice given to the Government by the Climate Change Committee’s (CCC) Adaptation Committee on stronger climate adaptation objectives.
Dr Leslie Mabon, Lecturer in Environmental Systems, Open University, said:
“The advice provided by the Climate Change Committee synthesises the best available science globally. It should be considered a clear warning that unless progress on reducing global emissions increases significantly, the UK is on track to face very serious impacts from climate change associated with higher levels of warming. The wildfires seen in Scotland this summer, and the extreme heat faced by the south of England earlier this year, are just two examples of the kind of extremes we are likely to see more of as the level of projected warming increases. At higher levels of global warming, the frequency and intensity of such extremes is likely to increase, and the risk of harm to the UK population is higher. This is one of the reasons the report argues it is prudent to prepare for the impacts associated with higher levels of warming.
“However, as the advice from the Climate Change Committee notes, the climate system is very complex, and the likelihood of extreme or unpredictable outcomes increases with every increment of warming. With COP30 on the horizon, the advice serves as a timely reminder that as well as preparing to adapt to the impacts of climate change that society is already locked into, the UK and other high-emitting nations should be doing everything they can to minimise the extent of warming. This means reducing emissions as fast as possible, whilst supporting less-wealthy nations to adopt clean energy and adapt to climate impacts.”
Dr Martin Juckes, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Oxford, said:
“It is now accepted that the temperature changes that we are experiencing are resulting, now, in large and unpredictable risks which may exceed adaptation capacity. That is academic language for ‘may lead to many deaths’.
“It is almost certain that we will pass through the 1.5°C warming target. The target is not precisely defined in the Paris Agreement, but a recent work published in the report on “Indicators of Global Climate Change 2024” (published in 2025 using data up to the end of 2024), led by Prof. Piers Forster, University of Leeds, suggest that we will pass this warming level by 2030. This report also established that the world is now warming at a rate of 0.27°C per decade, which will take us past 2°C warming before 2050.
“The Paris Agreement includes a clause on limiting temperature rise to below 2°C as part of a list of actions aimed at strengthening ‘the global response to the threat of climate change’. Passing these thresholds will add urgency to the core Paris Agreement objectives of responding to the threat of climate change in a sustainable and equitable manner.
“The transition from 1.5°C warming to 2°C warming will result in considerably higher levels of risk. A recent study on tipping points suggests that six regional and global tipping points will enter the category of likely phenomena, in the terminology of risk used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, before we reach 2°C warming. In normal language, these tipping points are each thought to be twice as likely to happen as not. These six are Greenland Ice Sheet collapse, West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse, collapse of deep convection processes in the Labrador-Irminger Seas, die-off of low-latitude coral reefs, abrupt thaw of Boreal Permafrost, and abrupt loss of ice in the Barents Sea. (“Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points”, Armstrong McKay et al, 2022).
“It would certainly be good to be awake and alive to the scale of the threat. Many of the risks being discussed in the academic community will exceed our adaptation capacity. There is an urgent need to strengthen both adaptation and mitigation efforts.”
Prof Nigel Arnell, Professor of Climate Change Science, University of Reading, said:
“There is a difference in impact between a 1.5- and a 2-degree world – especially after the 2050s – but this varies between risks. In a 1.5-degree world, risks tend to remain relatively constant after the 2050s, but they continue to increase slowly in a 2-degree world.
“The letter is not an acknowledgement that 1.5 is ‘all but impossible’ – it’s prudent advice to reduce future risks. We can’t guarantee 1.5, so let’s adapt to a higher level.
“It is a wakeup call – we need collectively to raise our aspirations for adaptation, particularly to high temperature extremes.”
Declared interests
Dr Leslie Mabon: “Leslie Mabon is an Ambassador for the National Centre for Resilience Scotland. This is a body committed to supporting Scotland to prepare for extremes through the best-available evidence. Leslie is also a member of the Scottish Government First Minister’s Environmental Council, again a body committed to helping the Scottish Government respond to climate change and biodiversity challenges in line with international best practice. Leslie receives no compensation for either role.”
No others received.