June 28, 2021

expert reaction to latest daily case figures as reported on the gov.uk dashboard

A comment from Professor James Naismith on the latest figures on the DHSC COVID-19 Dashboard.

Prof James Naismith, Director of the Rosalind Franklin Institute, and University of Oxford, said:

“The continued rise in the number of positive cases, with over 22,000 cases announced today and a record number in Scotland, serve as a reminder how dangerous the delta variant is. Scottish scientists who advise the Scottish Government will be well judged to comment on the advice given and followed in Scotland.

“We will see over this week, whether today is a blip or signals the start of more rapid growth in delta. Other data would suggest slower growth but they are backward looking.

“Vaccines are working and they will defeat the pandemic in the UK. There is similarly hopeful news from the EU where vaccination rates are climbing rapidly.

“Those who are vulnerable to serious disease (the un or singly vaccinated elderly / medically vulnerable and the very small number of those who do not get protected from the vaccine) are now at increased risk of catching the delta variant. As cases climb, the risk to these people’s lives increases.

“Younger people face the risk of long covid, the more infections the more young people damaged.

“These are real families and lives blighted, we must bring down the number of cases to reduce suffering.

“The more infections the more opportunity for new variants, something I would suggest is not ideal.

“There is no “living with” this rate of exponential growth in infections, to claim so is the same magical thinking that has been discredited wave after wave, country after country. The continuing rise of delta in population with a high number of vaccinated individuals, disproves the model of herd immunity by infection being within reach. The human cost had we experimented with these fringe ideas and let the virus rip in autumn / winter is surely evident to every person in the UK.

“It is the vaccine that is saving the UK from an explosive third wave of tens of thousands of deaths.

“In time, the vaccination campaign will deliver herd immunity and end exponential growth and bring down the number of cases.

“I would urge anyone who is vulnerable or elderly who has not been doubly vaccinated, to do so urgently. Delta will find you otherwise and you are at risk.

“Our current measures are not stopping the increase in delta, had we unlocked in June we would have faced an even more rapid increase.  Given the prevalence of delta in the UK, it is high risk for countries with low vaccination rates to allow entry to UK residents. I am particularly concerned about UK visitors to less developed countries whose health care systems will be seriously strained by a wave of delta.”

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

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