May 14, 2021

expert reaction to PHE statement on how many deaths and hospitalisations have been prevented by vaccination

According to the latest Public Health England (PHE) analysis, COVID-19 vaccines have now prevented 33,000 hospitalisations and 11,700 deaths in older adults.

Prof Kevin McConway, Emeritus Professor of Applied Statistics, The Open University, said:

“It’s good to see that PHE have extended their previous estimates on deaths prevented by vaccination to include the estimated effects on hospitalisations. On deaths, 11,700 fewer deaths in those aged 60 and over is impressive and important. That’s the total since December. The estimated number saved during April, 1,300, is important on its own. It’s considerably less than the 4,300 deaths saved during March – but that’s simply because infection rates generally have fallen because of lockdowns and effects of the vaccines on transmission of the virus.

“There are choices to be made on how to calculate this kind of estimate, because you have to compare the number of deaths or hospitalisations that actually happened with the number that would have happened if there were no vaccines, and of course nobody can know exactly how many there would have been without vaccination. I can’t comment on how PHE did this for hospitalisations, because I haven’t seen the report where they give details. But the estimate, 33,000 hospitalisations saved since December, is again impressive. Since any estimate like this is subject to uncertainty, it would be better if PHE had given an estimate of the size of that uncertainty.”

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/covid-19-vaccines-11-700-deaths-prevented

Declared interests

Prof Kevin McConway: “I am a Trustee of the SMC and a member of its Advisory Committee.  I am also a member of the Public Data Advisory Group, which provides expert advice to the Cabinet Office on aspects of public understanding of data during the pandemic.  My quote above is in my capacity as an independent professional statistician.”