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A new document was published today as part of the SAGE evidence publication, entitled ‘Direct and Indirect Impacts of COVID-19 on Excess Deaths and Morbidity: December 2020 Update – Executive Summary’.
Dr Jason Oke, Senior Statistician at the Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, said:
“An estimate of 100K excess deaths over winter seems excessive given what we know now. Between mid October and mid January 41k COVID deaths have been registered but there have been 30k excess deaths over the same period according the ONS. The reason is that, unlike the first wave, fewer non Covid deaths are being registered than expected for the time of the year. If the current trend were to continue then excess deaths will be far lower than 100k.”
Prof Karl Friston, Professor of Imaging Neuroscience, UCL, and panellist on the ‘Independent SAGE’ with special responsibility for modelling, said:
“I think the crucial statement – that generally accompanies these SAGE reports – is the most telling: “The previous paper highlighted a number of limitations to the analysis; these still apply. It is important to note that the estimates are not projections or forecasts, rather estimates of harm that could occur under specific scenarios.”
“In other words, this kind of scenario modelling is not meant to be read as an estimate of what is likely to happen – just what could happen under some simplifying assumptions about public health and socio-behavioural responses (usually that mitigating responses are absent or minimal). Models that incorporate real-time data and mitigating responses suggest the excess deaths (directly attributable to COVID), during the winter period, will be a (nontrivial) fraction of 100K.”
All our previous output on this subject can be seen at this weblink:
www.sciencemediacentre.org/tag/covid-19
Declared interests
None received.