December 11, 2020

expert reaction to latest COVID-19 nowcast and forecast from the MRC Biostatistics Unit at the University of Cambridge

The MRC Biostatistics Unit at the University of Cambridge have released their latest nowcast and forecast of COVID-19.

Prof Sheila Bird, Formerly Programme Leader, MRC Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge, said:

“The MRC-Biostatistics Unit/PHE team estimated the daily number of new SARS-CoV-2 infections in England on 25 November as 52,000 (95% credible interval: 39,000 to 68,000) whereas ONS Infection Survey’s Bayesian-modelled and weighted estimate for daily incidence during 22-28 November was substantially lower at 26,000 (95% Bayesian interval: 22,000 to 29,000) and apparently more precise.  Lower estimated incidence from ONS Infection Survey is to be expected because its sampling is household-based; and so excludes institutions.  The ONS infection Survey’s low volunteer rate may contribute to over-stated precision.  But the extent of under-estimation by ONS infection Survey is brought sharply into focus by today’s two reports.”

https://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/nowcasting-and-forecasting-11th-december-2020/

All our previous output on this subject can be seen at this weblink:

www.sciencemediacentre.org/tag/covid-19

Declared interests

Prof Sheila Bird: “SMB was formerly a Programme leader at MRC Biostatistics Unit.”