December 11, 2020

expert reaction to latest R number and growth rate estimates published by the government

The government have released the latest estimates for the COVID-19 growth rate and R value.

Prof Kevin McConway, Emeritus Professor of Applied Statistics, The Open University, said:

“This week, for the UK, the R range and the range for the growth rate are the same as they were two weeks ago, 0.9 to 1.0 for R and -2% to 0% per day for the growth rate.  Both of those ranges are a little higher than they were last week (0.8 to 1.0 for R, -3% to -1% for the growth rate).  This does not mean that either of the quantities has definitely increased compared to the week before – for example, R could have been 0.9 both weeks, and the growth rate -2% both weeks, and would still have been inside all the ranges.  But the change does indicate that R might be closer to 1 than it was, and the number of infections may be decreasing more slowly, than was the case.  Again that’s in line with evidence from other sources, including the ONS survey, that the reduction in infections may be slowing nationally.”

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk

All our previous output on this subject can be seen at this weblink:

www.sciencemediacentre.org/tag/covid-19

Declared interests

Prof Kevin McConway: “I am a Trustee of the SMC and a member of the Advisory Committee, but my quote above is in my capacity as a professional statistician.”