December 9, 2020

expert comment about Scotland’s second wave of COVID-19 deaths

A comment from Professor Sheila Bird on the situation in Scotland.

Prof Sheila Bird, Formerly Programme Leader, MRC Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge, said:

“It is now clear that Scotland’s second wave of death-occurrences which mention COVID-19 peaked in the week beginning 9 November 2020.  However, Scots must remain cautious throughout December so that this toe-hold on the pandemic is not squandered.

“Scotland’s second wave of COVID-mention deaths peaked at 278 in the week beginning 9 November 2020 with occurrences in the week beginning 30 November 2020 likely to be in the range 200 to 220 when fully registered.

“Scotland’s latest fortnightly multiplier (in turquoise) is 240/278 = 0.86 (below 1) compared to the latest yellow multiplier, which was 237/235 = 1.01.  This is a welcome modicum of success to be built on, not cast asunder when Scotland’s tiers are relaxed later this week.”

Scotland

(For weekly deaths by week of occurrence, health board and location, please see National Records of Scotland’s latest pivot table @ https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/vital-events/general-publications/weekly-and-monthly-data-on-births-and-deaths/deaths-involving-coronavirus-covid-19-in-scotland/related-statistics)

All our previous output on this subject can be seen at this weblink:

www.sciencemediacentre.org/tag/covid-19

Declared interests

None received.