August 28, 2020

expert reaction to 1,522 new UK COVID-19 cases announced on Thursday 27 August

The government announced the number of new cases of COVID-19 on Thursday 27th August as 1,522.

Prof Rowland Kao, the Sir Timothy O’Shea Professor of Veterinary Epidemiology and Data Science, University of Edinburgh, said:

“The increase in the number of cases does need to be viewed with caution – a single figure may in part be due to fluctuations.  However, it does reflect a general trend towards larger numbers of cases.  Releases of restrictions, increased numbers of imports due to people travelling overseas, and evidence of poor adherence in some cases to such restrictions that remain, all have the potential to contribute to increased transmission.  This trend also reflects patterns seen in other European countries which released restrictions earlier and therefore saw a case resurgence earlier.  Whether or not this represents the beginning of a second wave of a national epidemic will depend on the ability of the test and trace system to respond effectively by stamping out as many local outbreaks as possible, quickly.  As such, recent reports of large numbers of possible contacts not traced needs to be remedied – in many cases it is possible that these individuals will have self-isolated but unless those tracings are successfully completed we cannot be sure that this is the case; isolation of these contacts is a critical part of controlling outbreaks and preventing further, more extensive restrictions such as local or regional lockdowns.  Also, while it appears that many of these cases are now appearing in younger adults rather than the elderly, the risk to the vulnerably is likely to increase as those cases rise, and every effort should be made to ensure their continued protection from infection.”

Dr Simon Clarke, Associate Professor of Cellular Microbiology at the University of Reading, said:

“This is just one day’s numbers, but they’re moving in the wrong direction after plateauing.  It should be remembered that we have not yet seen corresponding increases in hospital admissions, let alone deaths and it seems likely that we’d need to see sustained increases in the daily numbers of fresh diagnoses and hospital admissions before the authorities move towards any significant tightening of restrictions on our lives.  Coupled with the news that Test and Trace has failed to meet its target for the ninth successive week, this is not good news as England moves towards the beginning of the new school year.  People need to remain conscious of the risks of infection and get tested if they have any symptoms.”

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

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