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The UK government have announced* that France and several other countries have been added to the list of countries from which returning travellers will be required to self-isolate for two weeks.
Dr Yuliya Kyrychko, Reader in Mathematics, University of Sussex, said:
“Since the start of the coronavirus epidemic, the UK has been lagging behind other European countries in terms of epidemic progression, it has seen the period of growth and the first peak delayed by 2-3 weeks compared to continental Europe. A significant growth in the number of infections that has been observed recently in most European countries is largely attributed to community transmission, suggesting that despite all measures in place, the infection is still sufficiently prevalent, and at the smallest opportunity might result in a rapid and significant increase in cases. In this respect, and bearing in mind that for the last couple of weeks, the average of daily cases in the UK has been growing, we should not be surprised to witness growth of infections in the UK that can be attributed both to cases coming from abroad, and those transmitted locally in the community.”
Dr Konstantin Blyuss, Reader in Mathematics, University of Sussex, said:
“Recent dynamics of COVID-19 cases in continental Europe indicates that some of the countries are already experiencing the second epidemic wave, with the numbers exceeding peak values seen during the first wave in some countries such as Romania, Bulgaria and Ukraine. The same is also true for countries like Australia and New Zealand, which managed to control the epidemic quite effectively during the initial outbreak, and for a long time they appeared to be free from infection, but now they are experiencing a substantial disease burden. In terms of disease control, the bad news is that the new outbreaks appear to be driven by community transmission, suggesting that the virus is still prevalent in a wider population in these countries. The good news is that so far the majority of these outbreaks are quite localised in terms of their geographical locations and settings in these countries (factories/schools etc.), which suggests that local quarantine and lockdown measures can be very effective at reducing the levels of disease transmission and preventing outbreaks from becoming very large and unmanageable. This again emphasises the need for robust and effective testing and contact tracing systems in place.”
Dr Michael Head, Senior Research Fellow in Global Health, University of Southampton, said:
“The pandemic is accelerating globally, and the many UK COVID-19 deaths were ultimately the result of initial importing of new cases with significant local transmission. We have to ensure the UK does not get anywhere near this situation again, and the public health considerations have to take priority. The rules around travel restrictions and quarantines are appropriate. Travellers must understand that their plans, including the potential for quarantine on their return, may well be disrupted. That is a risk when booking a holiday or travel abroad right now, and this will remain a risk for some time to come.”
All our previous output on this subject can be seen at this weblink:
www.sciencemediacentre.org/tag/covid-19
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