August 3, 2020

expert reaction to media reports of a government exercise looking at potential future COVID-19 pandemic scenarios and responses

It has been reported that the government have run exercises looking at potential future COVID-19 pandemic scenarios and responses.

Prof Sarah Harper, Clore Professor of Gerontology, University of Oxford, said:

“We need open information on the real and relative risks from COVID-19.  Age is an important criteria but not the only one.  We know women have a lower all-cause mortality risk than men at all ages.  A women in her early 70s, for example,  has the same chance of dying from all causes as a man in his 40s who has cardio vascular disease.

“The leap in risk from our 30s to our 40s is actually higher than that from our 40s to our 50s. Indeed the all-cause mortality risk actually increases by 70-80% between our 30s and 40s and only by 40-50% between our 40s and 50s.  So we could argue that everyone over 40 should be asked to do a self-assessment. It would be more reasonable to clearly communicate the risks to the those of different ages so there is a greater understanding, less fear and individuals can make their own decisions with more awareness and confidence.

“This data on risk is now available and should be clearly presented so that everyone can make their own judgements, in line if necessary with discussions with their GPs.  In addition, however, regardless of age, if the government is going to advise those of prime working age to shield, then there needs to be a sound policy to ensure that vulnerable adults are not forced to return to work due to lack of a financial safety net.

“As we all these measures we need a well thought out, cohesive plan which we all understand and can follow.”

Prof Sheila Bird, Formerly Programme Leader, MRC Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge, said:

“Everyone has a variety of risk-scores (the likelihood of a certain event), for example: your odds of dying in the next 6 months; odds of death with COVID-mentioned on the death certificate in the next 6 months; odds of dying from seasonal flu in the next 6 months. Age has an effect for each but the detailed modelling of how age impacts on the odds will be different for each of the three risks. Ethnicity is likely to have a different impact on the odds of COVID-mention death than on the odds of the other two outcomes. And, of course, only those who have been exposed to SARS-CoV-2 or to seasonal flu are liable to die from it. Finally, co-morbidities  – such as obesity – are likely to influence differently each of the illustrative three risk-scores.

“However, there are things that individuals can do to reduce their risk. They can minimise their exposure to SARS-CoV-2 (adherence to social distancing, hand-washing, mask-wearing, limited visitors to their home and to other homes, facilitation of test and trace by testing if experiencing one of three key symptoms) and to seasonal influenza (by vaccination); and in minimizing the risk of transmitting SARS-CoV-2 if infected but asymptomatic (by minimizing exposure in the first place).

“Just as we need transparency about the results of independent evaluations of new antigen tests that UK government has purchased on our behalf, we need transparency and peer-review about the evaluation of proposed risk-scores before they are deployed nation-wide.”

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/millions-more-could-be-told-to-stay-at-home-and-shield-5w76wxlhs
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/08/01/elderly-may-asked-stay-home-ministers-blueprint-avoid-new-lockdown/

All our previous output on this subject can be seen at this weblink: www.sciencemediacentre.org/tag/covid-19

Declared interests

None received.