July 17, 2020

expert reaction to latest R number and growth rate on the UK

The Government Office for Science and SAGE have published their latest estimates for the R number of COVID-19 and growth rate in the UK.

Dr Yuliya Kyrychko, reader in Mathematics at the University of Sussex, said:

“With the overall numbers of infections reducing, there is a greater degree of uncertainty in the value of R as computed from observed epidemiological data.

“However, it is worth noting that given R estimates being around 1, promoting the return of people to work and using public transport extensively, or as “normal”, without fully functional contact tracing programme/app might make it difficult to swiftly isolate exposed individuals and thus control subsequent spread at a local level.

“This might be especially challenging in London, where local lockdown might not be effective, if a large number of people are commuting to and from London.”

Dr Konstantin Blyuss, reader in Mathematics at the University of Sussex, said:

“Compared to last week, in all regions, except for North East and Yorkshire, the upper bound on R is 1 or even 1.1, suggesting that the epidemic is currently at a stage, where there is a strong potential for subsequent local outbreaks, if they are not quickly identified and effectively managed.

“In this respect, with restrictions being lifted, it is now more essential than ever to make sure that data on cases are collected and shared with local authorities, and the cases themselves are tracked and isolated, to avoid the resurgence of the full-scale epidemic.”

Dr Daniel Lawson, Lecturer in Statistical Science, School of Mathematics, University of Bristol, said:

“These data allow us to be cautiously optimistic. There is no indication that the epidemic has gotten out of hand as a result of the easements. However we must stay completely vigilant because there is a delay of at least two weeks before an increase in the reproductive rate of the virus is visible in the data.”

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk

All our previous output on this subject can be seen at this weblink:

www.sciencemediacentre.org/tag/covid-19

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