select search filters
briefings
roundups & rapid reactions
before the headlines
Fiona fox's blog
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) have published their latest retrospective figures for deaths in the UK, including statistics for those involving COVID-19.
Prof Sheila Bird, formerly Programme Leader, MRC Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge, said:
“It’s been understood that the five earliest COVID-19 deaths in England and Wales had occurred in the week ending 6 March 2020 [week 10]. Some may notice that in this week’s report from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), a death is included which appears to have occurred in the week ending 14 February 2020 [week 7] – however, this may well not be the case. As this death was not mentioned in ONS’s Main Points and does not appear in the listing of deaths by date-of-occurrence, I checked this provisional listing with ONS. And, indeed, ONS confirmed that they have reason to believe that the date-of-death may be in error in this case. This death-date is subject to further checks by ONS which are ongoing – so for now we cannot assume the death did actually occur in week 7.
“Delays in COVID-deaths being registered with the ONS may be because any death had been referred to the coroner with a view to inquest. The deceased, in this provisional report, was a male, aged 75-79 years who died in the West Midlands.
“Last month, I wrote twice to the Chief Coroner [5th and 29th May 2020] to ask how many coroner-referrals have there been in the COVID-era (from March 2020) in respect of suspect COVID-19 deaths of: i) healthcare workers, ii) emergency-service workers, iii) care-home workers, iv) other key workers. Specifically, I inquired how many such deaths – by death-date in 2020 – were referred to coroners in England in each of the weeks 11 to 17. My inquiries have gone unanswered as yet.”
Prof David Leon, Professor of Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, said:
“Today the Office for National Statistics published updated counts of weekly deaths from any cause and Covid-19 that were registered in England and Wales up until 30 May that occurred up to 22 May (week 21). The main report focuses on deaths by week according to date of registration of the death. From a scientific perspective it is more meaningful to look according to the week in which the death occurred which can be done using the data made available today. The numbers for the most recent weeks are provisional and will be slight undercounts as some of the deaths that occurred in this most recent week will still not have been registered by 30 May.
Summary:
“These data confirm a steady downward trend in both deaths from all causes and from Covid that has been evident since the middle of April. This downward trend is seen in all settings (places of death).
“In the most recent week (ending 22 May) 9,870 deaths occurred in England and Wales of which 1983 (20%) had Covid-19 mentioned on the death certificate.
“The total number of deaths occurring in care homes was 2862 of which 802 mentioned Covid on the death certificate (28%). The equivalent numbers for deaths in people’s own homes were 2577 total deaths and 95 Covid deaths (4%). For hospitals there were a total of 3793 deaths of which 1058 were Covid (28%).
Excess deaths:
“The overall number of deaths occurring in England and Wales in the week ending 22 May was only 378 more than expected based on the average for the past 5 years (2015-19). This is a dramatic decline in the number of “excess deaths” compared to the peak of the Covid epidemic in the week ending 10 April, where there were 10,888 more deaths than would be expected based on the previous 5-year average.
“Overall in the period of the Covid-19 epidemic in England and Wales (taken as starting at the beginning of March 2020) there have been 47,299 excess deaths. Of these 94% (44,331) had Covid-19 mentioned on the death certificate.
Place of death:
“There remains a major imbalance in where people are dying compared to past experience. In care homes there were 847 excess deaths, and in private homes 288 excess deaths from all causes. These were counter-balanced by a clear deficit in deaths in hospitals, whereby there were 609 fewer deaths in hospital than the 5-year average in the week ending 22 May.
“The excess deaths in care homes are largely explained by deaths from Covid-19. There are now only 45 more deaths from causes other than Covid-19 that occurred in this latest week. However, the 227 excess of non-Covid deaths in private homes are appreciable. These are likely to be predominantly made up of deaths that in previous years would have occurred in hospital.
“Hospitals continue to show an appreciable deficit in the numbers of non-Covid deaths occurring: 1667 fewer than expected based on the average for 2015-19. This deficit is declining extremely slowly. The reasons for this are unclear. If it reflects a continued unwillingness of older people to go to hospital, or of doctors or care home staff to recommend that people go to hospital, could this herald a more lasting change in where people might die in the future once Covid-19 mortality subsides?”
Prof Kevin McConway, Emeritus Professor of Applied Statistics, The Open University, said:
“This week’s new ONS data on deaths incudes deaths registered up to the week ending 22 May, so the most recent week isn’t affected by the early May bank holiday. Therefore the picture is clearer than the previous two weeks. The encouraging general trend from recent weeks continues. The total number of registered deaths in England and Wales where COVID-19 is mentioned on the death certificate is again down on the previous week, by a considerable amount (2,589 compared to 3,810, though the previous week’s figures may have been higher than they might otherwise have been, because of registrations not happening on the bank holiday the week before). Numbers of deaths involving COVID-19 in hospitals, care homes, and at home are also all lower than the previous week. In fact, numbers of deaths from all causes in these types of location are also continuing their downward trend.
“The number of excess deaths from all causes for the week ending 22 May is also considerably down on the previous week. That’s the difference between the number of deaths from all causes and the average number for the corresponding week in the previous 5 years. But there are still excess deaths – 2,348 in that week, which is 24% extra deaths on top of the 5-year average of 9,940 for that week. That number of excess deaths is actually fewer than the number of deaths where COVID-19 is mentioned on the certificate, which might indicate that there aren’t any excess deaths from other causes. But those numbers aren’t easy to interpret because of the complications of recording causes of death. We’ve got to remember that, in this latest week of data, deaths are still running at a considerably higher level than they normally would, but the excess deaths are far below their peak level of almost 12,000 a week in mid-April.
“I certainly don’t want to be a prophet of gloom, but I would urge some caution about these positive trends. The new week’s data would not yet have been affected by the loosening of the lockdown. That began to happen in the previous week (ending 15 May), though most changes occurred much more recently. If any of the changes turn out to have increased infections, that won’t show up in death statistics yet anyway, because obviously there is a time gap between infection and death. But we’ll see eventually.”
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/causesofdeath/articles/comparisonofweeklydeathoccurrencesinenglandandwales/uptoweekending22may2020
All our previous output on this subject can be seen at this weblink: www.sciencemediacentre.org/tag/covid-19
Declared interests
Prof Kevin McConway: “Prof McConway is a member of the SMC Advisory Committee, but his quote above is in his capacity as a professional statistician.”
None others received.