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The government has published* the first set of minutes from the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) meetings regarding the COVID-19 pandemic. The minutes cover the first 34 meetings, up until the beginning of May.
From Saturday 30th May
In response to SPI-B documents published:
Prof Dame Til Wykes FMedSci, Vice Dean Psychology and Systems Sciences, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology and Neuroscience, King’s College London, said:
“Scientific discoveries are vital for controlling a pandemic. We need to understand virus transmission, discover vaccines and effective treatment, but what is often overlooked is the significance of public behaviour. This is the key to overcoming the pandemic.
“The released Sage documents show that the UK public should be proud of scientists on the SPI-B committee. They sifted evidence to provide the government with unbiased advice that ranged from the best ways to get public agreement for “track and trace” to estimating levels of public compliance to aid epidemiologists with their prediction models. It has also helped provide the framework for the public understanding of science which fuels trust.
“What will help the public confidence in the future? More transparency of the underlying science, explanations in our media and an openness by the government when they disagree with the scientific advice. Governments have more to balance and they should not be afraid to disagree but we need to know why. We are, after all, supposed to be ‘all in this together’.”
From Friday 29th May
In response to a journalist question about what ‘phase 4’ is, as mentioned in the minutes of the 33rd SAGE meeting (5 May 2020), and whether that means a second peak will happen:
Dr Louise Dyson, Assistant Professor in Epidemiology, University of Warwick, said:
“The details of what was modelled can be found in the SPI-M consensus statement “S0313 SAGE33 Consensus for SPI-M on transition strategies.pdf” in the table at the top. The table details phases 1 to 4, which are different stages of a modelled phased relaxation of control measures in which work and leisure contacts gradually increase and children are gradually returned to school. Each scenario also included very effective contact tracing which was able to reach up to 80% of contacts within 48 hours up to a maximum of 15 (scenario 1) or 30 (scenario 2) contacts per index case. It’s important to understand that these were modelling results to explore what would happen under different measures. That doesn’t imply that these modelled scenarios will be the government strategy for releasing lockdown, and it’s important to bear in mind that with any planned strategy it may be necessary to change in response to new data. A second peak may well happen, but these particular simulations are not saying that.”
* https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-publishes-sage-minutes
All our previous output on this subject can be seen at this weblink:
www.sciencemediacentre.org/tag/covid-19
Declared interests
Dr Louise Dyson: “I am on SPI-M, but of course I don’t speak for SPI-M here.”
None other received.