May 10, 2020

expert anticipation of Boris Johnson’s speech this evening

There have been reports in the media of what Boris Johnson is expected to say in his address to the nation later this evening.

Prof Stephen Evans, Professor of Pharmacoepidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, said:

“Whatever is announced by the Prime Minister this evening, there are two things that should impact any individual’s behaviour in future. Firstly, the effect on that individual; what can I do to protect myself and what are the consequences to me of my getting the virus. Sir David Spiegelhalter explained this very carefully on the Andrew Marr Show this morning. For younger people the risks to the individual are extremely small, almost negligible for children of school age. A very few children out of many millions, usually with some other health condition, will die from the coronavirus. The second thing is the effect that an infected individual has on others.

“As age increases, the risks to individuals increase dramatically and continuously with increasing age.  There is no age “cut-off” where risks suddenly increase, but age is the strongest factor affecting risk. There are a number of other factors that affect the individual’s own risk, ethnic group, underlying health conditions and social deprivation all affect the risk of serious health consequences if an individual gets the virus. The risk of being affected varies with occupation and geography. Some of these things no individual can change, but they may be able to do things to avoid being infected, and to be aware of the key symptoms, such as sudden loss of taste or smell, that indicate the likelihood that you are infected. If you are at low risk of health consequences to yourself, then getting immediate health care is not important but protecting others is very important.

“The chance of being infected will generally depend on contact with other people or with places where the virus may be deposited and still be active. Handwashing and not touching the face helps protect ourselves from infection that then reduces our chances of being ill, but also very importantly reduces our chances of making other people ill. There are some aspects of this where our knowledge is still very incomplete; we do not know whether children or young adults, unaffected themselves, can infect others and if they can, how easily they do so. We do know that infected people are infectious prior to getting symptoms and perhaps most infectious immediately before and immediate after they get symptoms if they do get them.

“This virus has severe consequences if we simply act selfishly and with concern only for our own health. Those consequences may be for others immediately, but the person you infect (unwittingly perhaps) may be someone who you would rely on in the future – someone in a key job that affects your economic well-being or a health worker who might need to provide healthcare for you in the future.

“The other major issue is that the virus is having indirect effects (collateral damage) on health of those who have illnesses that are nothing to do with coronaviruses. Not getting appropriate care for these illnesses, either through being unable to access care or being frightened to do so, can have very serious consequences. It is important to seek care if ill for other reasons.

“This is yet another reason not to be selfish, in order to reduce the overall number of infections and reduce the fear that some old people have of going to hospital or other health care.”

The comments below are specifically about the expected new government slogan “Stay alert. Control the virus. Save lives.”.

Prof Simon Wessely, Regius Professor of Psychiatry at King’s College London and Director of the Health Protection Research Unit in Emergency Preparedness and Response, said:

“We haven’t yet had a formal announcement of this, but if it is indeed ‘stay alert’, it’s hard to be clear what that means, as opposed to “stay inside”.  Research in similar situations shows that what the public most want is specific guidance on what to do and what not to do.   I am not sure how this answers that.

“Almost half the population are already experiencing significant anxiety so they need no reminding. When the time comes to move gradually out of lockdown, and I accept we are not there yet, the biggest task is going to be how to reduce vigilance.”

Prof Til Wykes, Vice Dean of the Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology and Neuroscience at King’s College London, said:

“The one thing that helps the population is clear, concise and accurate messaging. This one is concise only. The previous message to Stay home was at least clear. What does stay alert mean? It will just be confusing, be open to misinterpretation and likely to increase risky behaviour – that means taking risks that will affect everyone and increase infections. This is not just about preventing deaths but many people who have survived this virus are left with physical problems that will affect them for a very long time.

“If you are going to re-message then listen to behavioural scientists about how to do it best.”

All our previous output on this subject can be seen at this weblink: www.sciencemediacentre.org/tag/covid-19

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