May 5, 2020

could segmenting and shielding form part of an exit strategy when the time is right to leave lockdown?

How best can we protect the most vulnerable and reduce the chance of a second wave of COVID-19 if lockdown measures are eased in future?

Scientists have used mathematical modelling to explore the effects on the epidemic curve of a gradual ramping up of protection for the vulnerable population and a gradual ramping down of restrictions on the non-vulnerable population over a period of 12 weeks after lockdown.

Journalists dialled in to this virtual press briefing to hear from the scientists about their modelling, what it suggests and what the uncertainties are.

* Please note this is unpublished research, it has not yet been through peer review and has not been published in a scientific journal – so this is early data. *

Speakers included:

Prof Mark Woolhouse, Professor of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, University of Edinburgh

Prof Aziz Sheikh, Professor of Primary Care Research & Development, and Director of the Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh

Dr Bram van Bunnik, Postdoctoral Research Fellow at the Epidemiology Research Group, Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh

This briefing was accompanied by a roundup of comments