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A study, issued by the University of Warwick, looked at the case for a rolling age-release strategy from the COVID-19 lockdown.
Dr Thomas House, Reader in Mathematical Statistics at the University of Manchester, said:
“This study argues for clear, honest explanation of individual-level COVID risks when discussing releasing some aspects of lockdown and makes many good points but omits some key epidemiological facts. An important point about infectious disease epidemics is that our risks are not borne individually, but rather depend very strongly on the actions of others. If younger individuals begin to mix again and we see an increase in the prevalence of coronavirus infections, that will inevitably increase the number of cases in the older individuals who are most at risk of dying once infected. It is also likely that there are many younger individuals who have massively increased risk compared to others of their age due to factors that we have not yet been able to identify through epidemiological analysis, and who would therefore be seriously misled by the kind of charts proposed by the authors.”
Age, Death Risk, and the Design of an Exit Strategy: A Guide for Policymakers and for Citizens Who Want to Stay Alive, Andrew J. Oswald, University of Warwick and IZ; Nattavudh Powdthavee, Warwick Business School and IZA April 2020
https://www.andrewoswald.com/docs/28AprilFinal2ndCOVIDpaperOswaldPowdthavee2020.pdf
All our previous output on this subject can be seen at this weblink: www.sciencemediacentre.org/tag/covid-19
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