April 24, 2020

expert reaction to latest figures on deaths and cases in the UK

The Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) and NHS England have announced the latest reported figures for cases of COVID-19 (143,464 in the UK) and deaths from COVID-19 (19,506 in the UK and 17, 373 in England).

Prof Sheila Bird, Formerly Programme Leader, MRC Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge, said:

“Our NOWCASTING website has been updated to include hospitalized COVID-19 deaths in ALL England and per-region as reported-in today: http://users.ox.ac.uk/~nuff0078/Covid/index.htm

“Some long registration-delays in evidence.  East of England not yet convincingly on the down-turn.”

Prof Carl Heneghan and Dr Jason Oke, Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine and Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, said:

“Today’s reported figure is 587 deaths in hospitals in England.  These deaths are distributed back to the 11th of March: There are 20.5% fewer deaths than a week ago, 17th April (n=738 deaths); see: https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19-death-data-in-england-update-24th-april/

“There are deaths reported for 30 different dates (n =133; 23%) that are from outside the uncertainty region of the revised upward zone.  These deaths go back to the 11th of March.  We do not know the reason for this.”

DHSC:

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public

NHS England:

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

All our previous output on this subject can be seen at this weblink:

www.sciencemediacentre.org/tag/covid-19

Declared interests

None received.