April 16, 2020

expert reaction to UK government extending lockdown measures for three weeks

At the daily Number 10 press conference, the First Secretary of State, Dominic Raab, announced the continuation of UK lockdown measures for another three weeks.

Dr Tom Wingfield, Senior Clinical Lecturer and Honorary Consultant Physician, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, said:

“Each country is currently dealing with its own coronavirus epidemic, which is specific to its own context. It is inevitable that the timing and extent of social distancing and lockdown measures have also varied. All of us in the UK are going to huge efforts to follow the guidance to stay at home and maintain social distancing. We are now seeing these efforts beginning to pay off. Coronavirus transmission looks to be slowing leading to the so-called “flattening of the curve” of daily new cases.

“However, it is definitely not yet the right time to relax the lockdown. To consider doing so, some vital elements need to be in place. Firstly, we need to see further sustained reduction in cases and deaths over the coming weeks. Secondly, we must be confident that we have sufficient healthcare service capacity for dealing with a possible “second wave” of cases. Thirdly, sufficient testing should be in place in the community for people with symptoms of Covid-19, and a renewed emphasis on contact tracing and isolation.

“It is important that there is transparency regarding what easing of lockdown might look like. It is unlikely that all lockdown measures will be lifted on a single day, in one fell swoop. Instead, it is more likely that some but not all lockdown measures will be relaxed over a period of time. 

“We should also be aware that, as we have seen in China, Hong Kong, and Singapore, it is highly likely that there will be an increase in case numbers again following lifting of lockdown measures, meaning that some restrictions may have to be reinstated.”

Prof Gary McLean, Professor in Molecular Immunology, London Metropolitan University, said:

“This decision makes complete sense. They are quite rightly making sure that this outbreak does not expand further by releasing the control measures too soon, considering that the government were so slow in the initial phases of the pandemic to introduce lockdown this shows that they are listening and learning.

“To relieve the lockdowns there must be overwhelming evidence of reduced virus transmission in the community. They claim the R value is likely to be below 1 in the community but I would like to see how they have calculated this.

“The UK control measures should also reflect what has happened in other countries and learn from them. Wuhan, China had lockdown for 11 weeks and had far fewer cases than the UK at the time of lockdown. Europe has been too slow to react and the virus testing is not on a large enough scale, except for in Germany. Other European countries are still in lockdown although some with fewer cases are relieving some control measures slowly.

“This will take time and the government is behaving responsibly and carefully now – they were slow to act in March though and could have done much more earlier.”

Prof Linda Bauld, Bruce and John Usher Chair in Public Health, University of Edinburgh, said:

“The extension of lockdown was expected but this news will come as a crushing disappointment to many. Everyone recognises that the absolute priority is to prevent the spread of Covid-19 and protect the NHS. But the wider consequences of lockdown are rapidly accumulating. In the past week we have seen data from several parts of the UK that shows a rise in all-cause mortality and not all of these deaths are Covid-related. There are more seriously ill people dying at home, more calls to 999, and accident and emergency hospital admissions have fallen. Recent surveys show worrying increases in anxiety and depression. Incidents of domestic violence – some of them fatal – have grown. Alcohol and drug services cannot support their clients in the usual way, and although we don’t yet know if directly alcohol and drug attributable deaths will rise, this is a real possibility.

“The British public are watching as governments in other countries discuss and then implement the gradual lifting of lockdown measures using a step-wise approach. Any lifting is risky, but it is imperative that governments across the UK start sharing with the public what the options will be here.  We now know what the criteria (the government’s ‘5 points of principle’) are for changing course and these are welcome. But sooner rather later, more detail about the future options for gradually releasing lockdown needs to be shared. People need this information and reassurance. Providing it will be essential if public support for the current measures is to be maintained.”

Dr Simon Clarke, Associate Professor in Cellular Microbiology, University of Reading, said:

“The news of a UK-wide, three-week extension to the lockdown is entirely unsurprising.  As the numbers in the epidemic starts to plateau, it’s essential that the country maintains the initiative of flattening the curve, to prevent the NHS from becoming overwhelmed, then to force number of new cases into a downward trajectory.  Taking the foot off the brake too early will only give the virus an opportunity to begin to spread again, at pace.  Decisions taken by other countries will help inform policy makers in deciding how to lift control measures, but we will also need to see testing conducted much more intensively than it is now, to gain a more accurate picture of how the virus is moving within the population.”

All our previous output on this subject can be seen at this weblink: www.sciencemediacentre.org/covid-19/

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