March 20, 2020

expert comments about numbers of deaths in the UK and how these compare with other countries like Italy

There have been questions from journalists about how the death rate from COVID-19 in the UK compares to the rate in other countries.

Dr Thomas House, Reader in Mathematical Statistics, University of Manchester, said:

“At this stage, the numbers of deaths are small, and there may be things that are atypical about the first ones.  On the other hand, the interventions against transmission in Italy are expected to have an impact on transmission, and thereby deaths, and this highlights the importance for the UK of making social distancing work.”

Dr Simon Clarke, Associate Professor in Cellular Microbiology, University of Reading, said:

“It is very difficult to make comparisons between countries, because the regime of testing, reporting cases, and reporting deaths is slightly different.  However, it would still unsurprising if the rate of deaths in the UK appears to be climbing faster than in Italy, because the outbreak in Britain is at an earlier stage than in Italy.  The key thing to reduce deaths will be to cut the rate of infection as fast as possible, because fewer cases will inevitably lead to fewer deaths.  It is also critical that the UK learns from the experience in Italy, where health services have been pushed almost to breaking point.”

All our previous output on this subject can be seen at this weblink:

http://www.sciencemediacentre.org/tag/covid-19

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