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The Chief Medical Officer for England, Prof Chris Whitty, has confirmed 32 new cases of COVID-19 in England, 34 total across the UK.
Prof Sian Griffiths, Emeritus Professor, the Chinese University of Hong Kong, and co chair of the Hong Kong government’s SARS inquiry, said:
“Perhaps this increase is not so surprising given the warning by the Chief Medical Officer at yesterday’s press conference. The majority of new cases have travel histories which would have led to them getting infected outside the UK. Until contact tracing for the three cases apparently infected in the UK has been completed it is not possible to say whether community transmission is confirmed, although the CMO said today that “it is likely, not definite, that we will move into onward transmission and an epidemic here in the UK”.”
Dr Andrew Freedman, Reader in Infectious Diseases / Hon. Consultant Physician, Cardiff University, said:
“Although 32 is the biggest daily increase to date, total numbers in the UK are still relatively low compared to many other countries. However, it is the three of these who contracted the virus in the UK from an unknown source that are of greatest concern. This suggests that there are likely to be other as yet, undiagnosed cases which may lead to further spread. It will be important to undertake urgent contact tracing for these three patients.”
Prof Yvonne Doyle, Medical Director, Public Health England, said:
“The majority of the new cases are linked to travel to affected countries, but we are carrying out contact tracing to understand how people acquired their infection. We are calling on everyone to help prevent the spread of coronavirus to help protect yourself and those around you. Our message is clear – simple hand washing with soap for 20 seconds is the key step we can all take to make a real difference in stopping this virus spread.”
Prof Peter Openshaw, Professor of Experimental Medicine, Imperial College London, said:
“The announcement of these additional cases demonstrates the effectiveness of testing in the UK and the strength of public health surveillance.
“The increase in case numbers is not surprising and reflects the continuing spread of the virus worldwide.
“Because we are picking up new infections early we might expect case fatality rate to be lower here than the overall global situation, particularly in Hubei where they were predominantly picking up more severe cases in the early days.”
Prof Paul Hunter, Professor in Medicine, UEA, said:
“Today’s increase in numbers represents a three times greater increase in new cases per day than we’ve seen in the last few days. However, most are associated with known cases or have history of foreign travel.
“Three of the cases appear to have no such contacts – this is further evidence that the infection is spreading in the community.
“However, the latest case numbers do not suggest we are past the stage where the containment approach is no longer valuable. Even though the increase looks dramatic, it should not alter our strategy at the moment.”
Dr Stephen Griffin, Associate Professor, University of Leeds, and Chair of the Virus Division, Microbiology Society, said:
“We are continuing to see new cases predominantly imported or linked to cases imported from high risk regions of the globe. It is encouraging that these are being identified, isolated and treated in a timely fashion. However, it remains a concern that cases of unknown origin are continuing to be identified. This suggests that there could be, albeit low level, local transmission within the UK resulting from an unknown source, but it could also be the case that contact tracing will rapidly identify the origin of these infections.
“It is right to be concerned and prepared, but it is not a time to panic. The number of cases remains small compared to the UK population and the current strategy of containment is working by and large. Nevertheless, we can probably expect to see an increase in the number of cases in the forthcoming days and weeks; the question is whether cases of unknown origin may start to become more significant.”
Dr Robin Thompson, Junior Research Fellow in Mathematical Epidemiology, University of Oxford, said:
“This is the largest increase in case numbers in a single day that we have seen so far in the UK during this outbreak. However, in terms of risk, there is a big difference between a scenario in which cases only come into this country from outside and a scenario is which substantial person-to-person transmission occurs within the UK. The vast majority of these cases are known to have recently travelled to affected areas. With that in mind, at the current time, the cases that are of greatest concern are the three patients that appear to have contracted the virus in the UK, since we do not yet know the sources of these cases. Contact tracing is underway to find this out.
“It remains important to emphasise the difference between the risk to individuals and the risk to the population as a whole. Case numbers remain low in the UK, so the risk that any specific individual contracts the virus in the UK in the near future is low. Of course, actions like thorough hand washing should be undertaken, but this is always advisable whether or not an outbreak like this one is ongoing.”
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public
All our previous output on this subject can be seen at this weblink:
http://www.sciencemediacentre.org/tag/covid-19
The SMC also produced a Factsheet on COVID-19 which is available here:
https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/smc-novel-coronavirus-factsheet/
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