February 24, 2020

expert reaction to media questions about if we are ‘reaching a tipping point’ in the COVID-19 outbreak

There have been questions raided in the media about whether we are ‘reaching a tipping point’ in the COVID-19 outbreak.

Dr Bharat Pankhania, from the University of Exeter Medical School, said:

“We now consider this to be a pandemic in all but name, and it’s only a matter of time before the World Health Organisation starts to use the term in its communications. This gives us focus and tells us that the virus is now appearing in other countries and transmitting far afield from China. However, it doesn’t change our approach in monitoring the outbreak. In the UK, there’s no need to move towards mitigation strategies, as so far, our containment policies are working. We only have 13 cases, and they are contained and controlled. I expect we will continue with this containment strategy while it’s successful.

“Inevitably, different countries need different strategies, depending on the resources they have available. Not all countries have an integrated healthcare system, with spare bed capacity, and infrastructure to deal with infection control as effectively as the UK is able to so far.

“Looking to the future, it’s a big unknown. The normal pattern of an outbreak like this as that warmer weather gets people outdoors and reduces the indoor crowding that brings about a lot of the spread of infection. We hope that will mean a reduction in the number of people being infected by coronavirus. It may come and go, or it may continue to circulate for a period, which could be six to 18 months at an estimate.”

Prof Mark Woolhouse, Professor of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, University of Edinburgh, said:

“A pandemic means an infectious disease is spreading out of control in different regions of the world. We already have a COVID-19 epidemic in China and, more recently, large outbreaks in South Korea, Iran and Italy. If those outbreaks cannot be brought under control, then COVID-19 would fit the criteria of a pandemic.

“The immediate implication is that many different countries around the world may be sources of COVID-19 infections. This makes it much harder for any one country to detect and contain imported cases and trying to do so will place ever greater demands on national health systems.

“This will make large and difficult to control outbreaks more likely in the UK and many other countries.”

Prof David Heymann, Professor of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), said:

“It is still a series of outbreaks and countries where they are occurring should make every effort to stop transmission and all countries should prepare for more widespread occurrence if it happens. Transmissibility in the community is not yet fully understood – terms such as pandemic are distracting – what is necessary is to understand the current situation in each country. Outbreaks must be stopped if possible, and if there is community spread also, community mitigation such as social distancing should be considered along the lines of pandemic preparedness plans for influenza that countries may decide to roll out.  It is for WHO to determine when the outbreaks should be called a pandemic and they will do this based on information from many different sources.”

All our previous output on this subject can be seen at this weblink:

http://www.sciencemediacentre.org/tag/covid-19

The SMC also produced a Factsheet on COVID-19 which is available here:

https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/smc-novel-coronavirus-factsheet/

Declared interests:

None received.