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Speakers:
Dr Tini Garske, MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis & Modelling, Imperial College London
Prof Azra Ghani, MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis & Modelling, Imperial College London
Prof Christl Donnelly, Professor of Statistical Epidemiology, Imperial College London
Current methods for assessing H1N1 influenza mortality rates are widely regarded as flawed, and a group of experts have been investigating how these predictions are made and how they can be made more accurate. Their research is due to be published in the British Medical Journal on Wednesday 15th July, and members of the group came to the SMC to brief journalists on questions including why current mortality models are wrong, how many deaths we can really expect, and how accurate the numbers might be.