January 14, 2016

expert reaction to new research on human/natural influence on UK December weather

An Oxford-based project has reported that the UK extremes in temperature and rainfall were extremely unlikely in nature, and that climate change increased the odds of the event occuring.

Dr Peter Stott, Head of Climate Monitoring and Attribution at the Met Office Hadley Centre, said:

“This analysis made on a rapid turnaround basis supports previous indications that human induced climate change is increasing the risk of heavy winter rainfall. This is through a well-known process by which greenhouse gases warm sea surface temperatures and the atmosphere potentially allowing more moisture to be rained out in storms.

“Further peer-reviewed research is needed to quantify fully the role of natural and human factors in contributing to the risk of flooding this winter for which higher resolution global modelling will help clarify how the storm tracks are affected by human-induced climate change and other factors such as this year’s El Nino.”

* http://www.climateprediction.net/weatherathome/2015-december-extreme-weather-in-the-uk/

Declared interests

None declared