August 19, 2015

expert reaction to new analysis of China’s carbon emissions

A group of researchers publishing in the journal Nature has attempted to quantify a range of factors related to Chinese energy consumption and carbon emissions, and report lower CO2 emissions for the period 2000-13 than other inventories.

Prof. Dave Reay, Professor of Carbon Management, University of Edinburgh, said:

“Good carbon accounting is hard enough for a single factory, but for a nation the size of China the sheer number and diversity of emission sources make it a monumental lesson in spreadsheet-wrangling.

“This new study shows just how important are assumptions about how much carbon is emitted for any given activity. Most nations still rely heavily on ‘default’ emission factors from the IPCC for their annual emissions accounts.

“Inevitably these broad averages can mean national estimates end up being under- or overestimates of the real emissions. By developing updated, location-specific emission factors the uncertainties can be reduced and governments can better plan their climate change mitigation efforts.

“Extending this kind of bespoke approach to carbon accounting all over the world will not be cheap – currently it is rich nations like the UK that lead the way – but for climate change, the business adage of ‘You can’t manage what you don’t measure’ has never rung more true.

“Unfortunately this revision makes no difference to the overall climate picture. China’s emissions may be a bit less than we thought, but we know how much total CO2 there is in the atmosphere and it is monitored globally. This study therefore makes no difference to the total amount in the atmosphere; it simply means that accounting for Chinese emissions is getting better.”

‘Reduced carbon emission estimates from fossil fuel combustion and cement production in China’ by Zhu Liu et al. published in Nature on Wednesday 19 August. 

Declared interests

None declared