September 8, 2014

expert reaction to study mapping areas potentially at risk of further Ebola outbreaks

A study published in the journal eLife investigated the transmission of Ebola in light of changing population movement and networks, suggesting areas which are at risk from future outbreaks.

Dr Ben Neuman, Virologist, University of Reading, said:

“Each Ebola outbreak starts when a person catches the virus from an animal – this study shows where those first cases are likely to occur.  As long as people live in at-risk regions, the virus will occasionally infect someone.”

“But the vast majority of Ebola patients caught the virus from another person, not an animal.  In that sense, single cases of Ebola are inevitable.  But every case after the first one is potentially preventable with an effective public health response.”

“The lack of health care infrastructure in Ebola affected regions has been a real problem.  These maps outline the areas where infrastructure investments would be most effective in stopping future Ebola outbreaks.”

Dr Sebastian Funk, Lecturer in Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, said:

“The Ebola outbreak in West Africa has caught health systems by surprise. In the future, it will be important to have a better idea in advance of where outbreaks might occur. This study makes an important contribution by mapping out areas at risk, but more investigation of the animal reservoirs will be needed to fully understand the ecology of Ebola virus.”

Dr Michael Jarvis, Reader in Immunology & Virology, University of Plymouth, said:

“This study builds on earlier ecological niche modelling by Peterson and colleagues (Peterson et al. 2004. Emerg Infect. Dis, 2004. 10: 40), with similar conclusions regarding the geographic areas at risk for future Ebola virus outbreaks. The additional use of incidence of animal infections in this new study takes into account the now well-established role of handling of infected chimpanzee and gorilla carcasses in human Ebola outbreaks, and highlights a need to address this problem at the source if we are to prevent future outbreaks, possibly by vaccination of these great ape species.  In addition to decreasing the incidence of human outbreaks, such vaccination would also protect these species from the devastating effects of Ebola.”

‘Mapping the zoonotic niche of Ebola virus disease in Africa’ by David Pigott et al. published in eLife on Monday 8 September 2014.

All our previous output on this subject can be seen at this weblink:

http://www.sciencemediacentre.org/ebola-outbreak/

Declared interests

Dr Sebastian Funk currently part of a joint application for funding to do modelling of the current Ebola outbreak. Dr Funk and Prof Peter Piot are currently co-authoring a commentary for eLife alongside this paper.

Dr Michael Jarvis: as part of a collaborative group I am working on development of a ‘disseminating Ebola vaccine’ to vaccinate great apes: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21858240. I am also included on a patent for use of the vaccine vector (CMV) to prevent HIV and TB in humans.