February 9, 2014

expert reaction to new paper on temperature ‘slowdown’

An article published in Nature Climate Change looked at how strengthened Pacific trade winds can account for much of the recent slowdown in global temperature increase.  

Prof Richard Allan, Professor of Climate Science at the University of Reading, said:

“This study builds on previous research suggesting that the oceans are absorbing large amounts of heat below the surface layers and that strengthening Pacific winds are the primary cause.  These changes are temporarily masking the effects of man-made global warming.

“It is likely that the current slowdown is only a temporary reprieve from rapid increases in global temperatures.  Measurements from satellites and deep ocean buoys show that the planet is absorbing more heat than it is radiating out to space and the heat is building up in the oceans.  This new research suggests that when the trade winds weaken again, the planet can expect rapid warming of the surface to resume, as greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise.

“We don’t know what is causing these unprecedented changes, but the implications could be substantial.  It would be surprising if these large changes in atmospheric and ocean circulation over the last two decades, including also a potentially long-term decline in the Atlantic ocean circulation, have not already disrupted our weather patterns.”

Prof Piers Forster, Professor of Climate Change at the University of Leeds, said:

“This is a nice paper that gives further evidence that the slowdown is primarily due to the ocean and its interaction with the atmosphere. The ocean has likely been absorbing extra heat over the last 15 years.  It will not be kind to us forever though; beyond 2020 we fully expect the greenhouse gas driven global warming trend to be back on track.”

‘Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus’ by Matthew England et al. published in Nature Climate Change on Sunday 9 February.