November 6, 2013

expert reaction to record greenhouse gas concentrations as announced by the WMO

The World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) announced the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere reached a new record high in 2012.

Prof Bill Collins of Reading University said:

“These latest figures are not at all unexpected. We are still emitting record levels of carbon dioxide and many other greenhouse gases. Year after year we find that the world’s oceans and forests are less able to mop up the surplus, so our atmosphere is becoming increasingly saturated with carbon dioxide.
 
“Humanity is already in an unprecedented position in terms of the levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and the numbers will continue to go up unless we do something about it.”

Prof David Lee, Director of the Centre for Aviation, Transport, and the Environment at Manchester Metropolitan University, said:

“This important bulletin of the World Meteorological Organization shows that concentrations of the major greenhouse gases (GHGs) – CO2, CH4 and N2O – are still steadily increasing to all-time ‘highs’. Methane is showing a steady increase again after concentrations appeared to be levelling in the early 2000s.  

“The recent  September 2013 report of the IPCC (WG1) showed the importance and increased certainty associated with GHG concentrations and climate change.  CO2 is a particularly serious challenge, as the main GHG.  The WMO Bulletin shows the highest ever concentrations of 393 parts per million (ppm) as a global average.  However, in May this year, CO2 concentrations passed 400 ppm at Mauna Loa at Hawaii – a sobering reminder in light of one of the IPCC report’s headlines that ‘Limiting climate change will require substantial and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions’.”

Prof Andrew Watkinson, Director of the ‘Living With Environmental Change’ Programme at the University of East Anglia, said:

“The WMO report and others show that greenhouse gas emissions and concentrations in the atmosphere continue to rise. If we continue along this trajectory then we look set for dangerous climate change and global temperature increases in the order of 3-4 degrees Centigrade by 2100.  The message is clear. We need to redouble our efforts and radically cut greenhouse gas emissions if we are to avoid such unprecedented temperatures.”

Dr Christopher Brierley, Lecturer in Climate Modelling at University College London, said:

“We are rapidly leaving the atmospheric conditions in which humans evolved.  Last year had carbon dioxide levels at the threshold of any seen in past 5 million years, whilst humans and their ancestors have only been around for half that time.”

Prof Piers Forster, Professor of Climate Change at the University of Leeds, said:

“This shows that greenhouse gases are heating the climate more and more every year.  For the last decade or so the oceans have kindly been sucking up this extra heat, meaning that surface temperatures have only increased slowly.  Don’t expect this state of affairs to continue though, the extra heat will eventually come out and bite us, so expect strong surface warming over the coming decades.”

Dr Dave Reay, Reader in Carbon Management at the University of Edinburgh, said:

“This is the test of our global efforts to tackle climate change at its most simple. And we are failing that test.

“Ultimately, the success of all international climate negotiations, emissions regulations, and carbon markets rests on stabilising greenhouse gas concentrations in our atmosphere at a level that avoids dangerous climate change.  Despite the financial crash, and reduced emissions from some nations, the global picture is one of carbon dioxide concentrations in our atmosphere reaching a record-breaking high year after year.

“The levels of this potent greenhouse gas are already far higher than at any time in the last million years, and they now appear to be rising even faster.  The new report from the World Meteorological Office notes that the growth rate in the 1990s was around 1.5 parts per million (ppm) each year, and that in the past decade this rate rose to around 2ppm a year. The rate of increase last year was 2.2ppm, but 2013 looks set to raise the bar still higher with most months this year being more than 3ppm higher than the same months in 2012.

“The day will come when the upward zigzag of global carbon dioxide concentrations begins to level off; when the climate policies and plans of world governments stem the flow of greenhouse gas emission to our atmosphere.  Just when that will happen and how high the zigzag will have climbed remains uncertain, but what is certain is that every year that passes before then makes avoiding dangerous climate change that bit harder.”
 

Prof Peter Wadhams, Professor of Ocean Physics at the University of Cambridge, said:

“Despite the intentions and statements made by politicians there is no evidence of any reduction in the rate of increase of CO2 in the atmosphere. It is rising faster than ever, showing that no effective measures have been taken at all.

“CO2 has a ratchet effect.  Its influence on the climate system lasts for about 100 years, so we will be paying for our profligate use of fossil fuels for a long time to come – so long, in fact, that we may well have now made it impossible for the planet to avoid catastrophic global warming effects, even if we make a start now on reducing CO2 emissions.  Under these circumstances it may well be an urgent matter to consider use of geoengineering techniques to slow down global warming, and to conduct urgent research on whether any method can be developed to actually take CO2 out of the atmosphere.

“Just as much of a threat is methane, CH4.  Whiteman, Hope and Wadhams showed in a recent Nature article how a large burst of methane emitted due to the thawing of offshore permafrost in Arctic shelf seas (itself a consequence of ice retreat) could increase warming by 0.6C and cost the world 60 trillion dollars.  Lesser emissions from thawing of onshore permafrost may also contribute significantly to warming, yet are completely ignored by the IPCC.”

Prof Julian Hunt, Emeritus Professor of Climate Modelling at University College London, said:

“This is a very valuable report and shows how WMO is ensuring wide publicity of these dangerous trends, especially of increasing methane (whose greenhouse effect relative to CO2 is now known to be greater than previously estimated).  The release of high latitudes will become more serious with the progressive melting of the permafrost.  What is worrying about the report is that it shows the small number of observing stations in the Russian arctic where the permafrost melting will be most significant.”