January 3, 2013

expert reaction to MET office preliminary analysis of UK rainfall in 2012

Provisional statistics from the Met Office showed 2012 was the second wettest year in the UK national record dating back to 1910, just a few millimetres short of the record set in 2000.

Professor Nigel Arnell, Walker Institute Director, University of Reading, said:

“Rainfall has increased in recent decades over many parts of the Northern Hemisphere and we’re seeing rain falling in heavier bursts. 2012 for the UK fits with that picture and we’ve seen the effect of all this rain with disruptive flooding across many parts of country.

“While rainfall varies naturally from year to year and decade to decade, there is increasing evidence that the build up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is starting to affect rainfall across the globe.  That means we are likely to see flood frequency increase further.  The sort of wet winters we currently see over Northern Europe just once every 20 years could happen almost every other year by the end of the century, but curbs on global greenhouse gas emissions could significantly reduce the expected increase in flood risk.”

Ola Holmstrom, Head of Water at WSP Engineering Consultancy, said:

“We are heading towards a time where there will no longer be any real drought or rain periods, we could just as easily have a drought winter and a flood summer – as seen this year. Adapting to these new weather patterns is the challenge; it requires innovative thinking from those with responsibility for risk management as well as commitment at every level of society, from individuals to Government.

“Although much of the long-term solution is about planning and adapting approaches, funding is crucial and public budgets need to be protected. Our core infrastructure will need to be adapted, re-enforced and in some cases completely re-built which comes with a cost.”