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Jamaica has suffered major impact from Hurricane Melissa, which has now made landfall in Cuba. The All Ireland Science Media Centre asked local experts to comment. Our colleagues at the UK Science Media Centre also gathered comments yesterday.
Dr Samantha Hallam, Oceanographer and Climate Scientist, Irish Climate Analysis Research Units, Maynooth University, comments:
“Hurricane Melissa was a category 5 hurricane with max winds of 185mph as it made landfall yesterday in Jamaica. Category 5 storms are unusual but becoming more frequent. This is the strongest hurricane to ever hit Jamaica. In terms of wind speed, Hurricane Melissa matches the strongest category 5 hurricanes on record in the Atlantic (Dorian 2019, Wilma 2005, Gilbert 1988, Labor Day 1935).
“There are 3 types of damage risk from hurricanes; winds, flooding from rainfall and storm surge. For a category 5 hurricane the winds within the eyewall of the hurricane, which is where the strongest winds are, total structural failure is likely. Catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are also likely as rainfall reached up to 30 inches. Peak storm surge reached 9-13ft, mainly in the south.
“Warm ocean temperatures fuel the hurricane as the heat from the ocean is transferred into the atmosphere through latent heat release. Currently in the Caribbean, ocean temperatures are close to 30°C, around 1.5°C warmer than normal, contributing to Hurricane Melissa having higher wind speeds than would otherwise be expected.
“We have been working with scientists at University of West Indies on hurricane intensity prediction as part of the TOPIM project for the past 18 months. Our project is funded by Irish Aid as part of Marine Institute, Our Shared Ocean Programme. Our research has shown that you can improve hurricane intensity prediction by using subsurface ocean temperatures and TOPIM has contributed to the intensity prediction of Melissa, where it forecast a category 5 hurricane over a week ago for Jamaica.
“Our research in the Caribbean has shown that increasing hurricane intensity is linked to the rising ocean temperatures seen. In the Caribbean region ocean temperatures have been rising at 0.2°C per decade since 1965 and this is linked to the 5kt per decade average increase in the strength of hurricane winds over that period. Our research finds there is an average increase of 25 kts (23mph) for every 1°C rise in ocean temperatures.
“Jamaicans are very resilient people but in the coming days, weeks and months Jamaica will need support to recover from Hurricane Melissa.”
Professor Peter Thorne, Professor of Physical Geography, Maynooth University, and Director of the Irish Climate Analysis and Research UnitS group (ICARUS), comments:
“As various extremely rapid attribution studies have pointed out climate change, expressed through the record-breaking warm ocean temperatures that Melissa has been traversing has, inevitably, had an impact on the storm. Without such deep warm waters, the storm would have caused cool waters to upwell and effectively throttled itself. The record warm ocean temperatures also mean more water has evaporated from the oceans leading to even heavier precipitation. But there is also a healthy dose of weather in the mix. The weather conditions including the lack of wind shear (changes in direction with height) and very light steering currents were equally important and it is much less clear whether climate change is influencing these aspects.”
Professor Peter Croot, School of Natural Sciences, University of Galway, comments:
“I am currently in Santa Marta, Colombia for an Ocean meeting and we have had some heavy rain and wind today which is connected in part to the wider rain bands of Hurricane Melissa which earlier today caused widespread damage in Jamaica and now threatens Cuba. The waters of the Tropical Atlantic and in particular the Caribbean have warmed rapidly over the last decade or so, leading to a wider region where Hurricanes can form and also provide more ocean heat for them to grow and develop faster, which is what appears to be what has happened in the case of Hurricane Melissa. Earlier this year Cape Verde was also hit with heavy rains by the initial stages of what would quickly go on to be the 1st category 5 hurricane of 2025, Hurricane Erin, causing damage and loss of life. In both of these Hurricanes they intensified extremely rapidly due to the warming waters in the Tropical Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea. The worry for many Caribbean nations is that this is going to be a worsening problem as global warming further impacts the Caribbean Sea and results in more of these rapidly intensifying storms each year.”
Conflicts of interest: None declared
Declared interests:
Dr Samantha Hallam: Dr Samantha Hallam is funded by ObsSea4Clim “Ocean observations and indicators for climate and assessments” is funded by the European Union, Horizon Europe Funding Programme for Research and Innovation under grant agreement number: 101136548. TOPIM project is part of Ireland’s ‘Our shared Ocean Programme” and is funded by the Department of Foreign Affairs though Ireland’s development cooperation programme, Irish Aid, administered and managed by the Marine Institute on behalf of Irish Aid.
Professor Peter Thorne: None declared.
Professor Peter Croot: None declared.